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- Faculty Publications (169)
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All HBS Web
(445)
- Faculty Publications (169)
- 2023
- Article
Experimental Evaluation of Individualized Treatment Rules
By: Kosuke Imai and Michael Lingzhi Li
The increasing availability of individual-level data has led to numerous applications of individualized (or personalized) treatment rules (ITRs). Policy makers often wish to empirically evaluate ITRs and compare their relative performance before implementing them in a...
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Keywords:
Causal Inference;
Heterogeneous Treatment Effects;
Precision Medicine;
Uplift Modeling;
Analytics and Data Science;
AI and Machine Learning
Imai, Kosuke, and Michael Lingzhi Li. "Experimental Evaluation of Individualized Treatment Rules." Journal of the American Statistical Association 118, no. 541 (2023): 242–256.
- January 2023
- Article
Firm-Induced Migration Paths and Strategic Human-Capital Outcomes
By: Prithwiraj (Raj) Choudhury, Tarun Khanna and Victoria Sevcenko
Firm-induced migration typically entails firms relocating workers to fill value-creating positions at destination locations. But such relocated workers are often exposed to external employment opportunities at their destinations, possibly triggering turnover. We...
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Keywords:
Worker Relocation;
Turnover;
Firm-induced Migration;
Smaller Towns;
Employee Mobility;
Geographic Mobility;
Migration;
Clusters;
Employees;
Geographic Location;
Performance;
Opportunities;
Retention;
Human Capital;
Talent and Talent Management
Choudhury, Prithwiraj (Raj), Tarun Khanna, and Victoria Sevcenko. "Firm-Induced Migration Paths and Strategic Human-Capital Outcomes." Management Science 69, no. 1 (January 2023): 419–445.
- November 2022
- Article
My Boss' Passion Matters as Much as My Own: The Interpersonal Dynamics of Passion Are a Critical Driver of Performance Evaluations
By: Jon M. Jachimowicz, Andreas Wihler and Adam D. Galinsky
Companies often celebrate employees who successfully pursue their passion. Academic research suggests that these positive evaluations occur because of the passion percolating inside the employee. We propose that supervisors are also a key piece of this puzzle:...
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Keywords:
Passion;
Job Performance;
Motivation;
Emotions;
Performance Evaluation;
Interpersonal Communication
Jachimowicz, Jon M., Andreas Wihler, and Adam D. Galinsky. "My Boss' Passion Matters as Much as My Own: The Interpersonal Dynamics of Passion Are a Critical Driver of Performance Evaluations." Special Issue on Work Passion Research: Taming Breadth and Promoting Depth. Journal of Organizational Behavior 43, no. 9 (November 2022): 1496–1515.
- 2023
- Working Paper
The Retail Habitat
By: Toomas Laarits and Marco Sammon
Retail investors trade hard-to-value stocks. Controlling for size, stocks with a high share of retail-initiated trades are composed of more intangible capital, have longer duration cash-flows and a higher likelihood of being mispriced. Consistent with retail-heavy...
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Keywords:
Retail;
Retail Trade;
Intangible Capital;
Mispricing;
Investment;
Valuation;
Business Earnings
Laarits, Toomas, and Marco Sammon. "The Retail Habitat." Working Paper, May 2023.
- 2022
- Article
Diffusing Management Practices within the Firm: The Role of Information Provision
By: Michael J. Lenox and Michael W. Toffel
Why are some firms more successful in adopting profitable environmental management practices than others? A key role of corporate managers is to encourage subsidiaries to adopt innovative practices. We examine the conditions under which corporate managers use...
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Keywords:
Environmental Strategy;
Information Provision;
Environmental Management;
Knowledge Dissemination
Lenox, Michael J., and Michael W. Toffel. "Diffusing Management Practices within the Firm: The Role of Information Provision." Art. 5911. Special Issue on Competitive Sustainability: The Intersection of Sustainability and Business Success. Sustainability 14, no. 10 (2022).
- September 2022
- Article
Health Externalities and Policy: The Role of Social Preferences
By: Laura Alfaro, Ester Faia, Nora Lamersdorf and Farzad Saidi
Social preferences facilitate the internalization of health externalities, for example by reducing mobility during a pandemic. We test this hypothesis using mobility data from 258 cities worldwide alongside experimentally validated measures of social preferences....
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Keywords:
Social Preferences;
Pandemics;
Mobility;
Health Externalities;
Mitigation Policies;
Health Pandemics;
Cooperation;
Behavior;
Policy
Alfaro, Laura, Ester Faia, Nora Lamersdorf, and Farzad Saidi. "Health Externalities and Policy: The Role of Social Preferences." Management Science 68, no. 9 (September 2022): 6751–6761.
- 2022
- Working Paper
Perceptions about Monetary Policy
By: Michael D. Bauer, Carolin Pflueger and Adi Sunderam
We estimate perceptions about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy rule from panel data on professional forecasts of interest rates and macroeconomic conditions. The perceived dependence of the federal funds rate on economic conditions varies substantially over time,...
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Bauer, Michael D., Carolin Pflueger, and Adi Sunderam. "Perceptions about Monetary Policy." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30480, September 2022.
- Article
The Cross Section of Bank Value
By: Mark Egan, Stefan Lewellen and Adi Sunderam
We study the determinants of value creation in U.S. commercial banks. We develop novel measures of individual banks' productivities at collecting deposits and making loans. We relate these measures to bank market values and find that deposit productivity is responsible...
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Keywords:
Productivity;
Banks and Banking;
Valuation;
Performance Productivity;
Value Creation;
United States
Egan, Mark, Stefan Lewellen, and Adi Sunderam. "The Cross Section of Bank Value." Review of Financial Studies 35, no. 5 (May 2022): 2101–2143.
- 2022
- Working Paper
A Linear Panel Model with Heterogeneous Coefficients and Variation in Exposure
By: Jesse M. Shapiro and Liyang Sun
Linear panel models featuring unit and time fixed effects appear in many areas of empirical economics. An active literature studies the interpretation of the ordinary least squares estimator of the model, commonly called the two-way fixed effects (TWFE) estimator, in...
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Shapiro, Jesse M., and Liyang Sun. "A Linear Panel Model with Heterogeneous Coefficients and Variation in Exposure." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29976, April 2022.
- April–June 2022
- Other Article
Commentary on 'Causal Decision Making and Causal Effect Estimation Are Not the Same... and Why It Matters'
There has been a substantial discussion in various methodological and applied literatures around causal inference; especially in the use of machine learning and statistical models to understand heterogeneity in treatment effects and to make optimal decision...
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Keywords:
Causal Inference;
Treatment Effect Estimation;
Treatment Assignment Policy;
Human-in-the-loop;
Decision Making;
Fairness
McFowland III, Edward. "Commentary on 'Causal Decision Making and Causal Effect Estimation Are Not the Same... and Why It Matters'." INFORMS Journal on Data Science 1, no. 1 (April–June 2022): 21–22.
- Article
Eliminating Unintended Bias in Personalized Policies Using Bias-Eliminating Adapted Trees (BEAT)
By: Eva Ascarza and Ayelet Israeli
An inherent risk of algorithmic personalization is disproportionate targeting of individuals from certain groups (or demographic characteristics such as gender or race), even when the decision maker does not intend to discriminate based on those “protected”... View Details
Keywords:
Algorithm Bias;
Personalization;
Targeting;
Generalized Random Forests (GRF);
Discrimination;
Customization and Personalization;
Decision Making;
Fairness;
Mathematical Methods
Ascarza, Eva, and Ayelet Israeli. "Eliminating Unintended Bias in Personalized Policies Using Bias-Eliminating Adapted Trees (BEAT)." e2115126119. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119, no. 11 (March 8, 2022).
- Article
From Immigrants to Americans: Race and Assimilation During the Great Migration
By: Vasiliki Fouka, Soumyajit Mazumder and Marco Tabellini
How does the arrival of a new minority group affect the social acceptance and outcomes of existing minorities? We study this question in the context of the First Great Migration. Between 1915 and 1930, 1.5 million African Americans moved from the U.S. South to Northern...
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Fouka, Vasiliki, Soumyajit Mazumder, and Marco Tabellini. "From Immigrants to Americans: Race and Assimilation During the Great Migration." Review of Economic Studies 89, no. 2 (March 2022): 811–842. (Also appears in VoxEU, The New York Times, Broadstreet, the Skepticast, and Oxford University Press Blog.)
- March 2022
- Article
Learning to Rank an Assortment of Products
By: Kris Ferreira, Sunanda Parthasarathy and Shreyas Sekar
We consider the product ranking challenge that online retailers face when their customers typically behave as “window shoppers”: they form an impression of the assortment after browsing products ranked in the initial positions and then decide whether to continue...
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Keywords:
Online Learning;
Product Ranking;
Assortment Optimization;
Learning;
Internet and the Web;
Product Marketing;
Consumer Behavior;
E-commerce
Ferreira, Kris, Sunanda Parthasarathy, and Shreyas Sekar. "Learning to Rank an Assortment of Products." Management Science 68, no. 3 (March 2022): 1828–1848.
- March 2022
- Article
Revealing Corruption: Firm and Worker Level Evidence from Brazil
By: Emanuele Colonnelli, Spyridon Lagaras, Jacopo Ponticelli, Mounu Prem and Margarita Tsoutsoura
We study how the disclosure of corrupt practices affects the growth of firms involved in illegal interactions with the government using randomized audits of public procurement in Brazil. On average, firms exposed by the anti-corruption program grow larger after the...
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Colonnelli, Emanuele, Spyridon Lagaras, Jacopo Ponticelli, Mounu Prem, and Margarita Tsoutsoura. "Revealing Corruption: Firm and Worker Level Evidence from Brazil." Journal of Financial Economics 143, no. 3 (March 2022): 1097–1119.
- 2022
- Working Paper
Statistical Inference for Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Discovered by Generic Machine Learning in Randomized Experiments
By: Kosuke Imai and Michael Lingzhi Li
Researchers are increasingly turning to machine learning (ML) algorithms to investigate causal heterogeneity in randomized experiments. Despite their promise, ML algorithms may fail to accurately ascertain heterogeneous treatment effects under practical settings with...
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Imai, Kosuke, and Michael Lingzhi Li. "Statistical Inference for Heterogeneous Treatment Effects Discovered by Generic Machine Learning in Randomized Experiments." Working Paper, March 2022.
- 2022
- Chapter
Creating 'Smart' Policy to Promote Entrepreneurship and Innovation
By: Karen G. Mills and Annie Dang
Entrepreneurship is a key to unlocking innovation and fostering regional and national economic productivity. Extensive studies demonstrate that small and young firms contribute to innovation and employment growth. But which of the many types of small firms are...
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Keywords:
Economic Policy;
High-growth;
Entrepreneurship;
Innovation and Invention;
Business Startups;
Economic Growth;
Policy;
United States
Mills, Karen G., and Annie Dang. "Creating 'Smart' Policy to Promote Entrepreneurship and Innovation." In The Role of Innovation and Entrepreneurship in Economic Growth, edited by Michael J. Andrews, Aaron Chatterji, Josh Lerner, and Scott Stern. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2022.
- 2022
- Book
The Role of Innovation and Entrepreneurship in Economic Growth
By: Michael J. Andrews, Aaron Chatterji, Josh Lerner and Scott Stern
We live in an era in which innovation and entrepreneurship seem ubiquitous, particularly in regions like Silicon Valley, Boston, and the Research Triangle Park. But many metrics of economic growth, such as productivity growth and business dynamism, have been at best...
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Keywords:
Productivity Growth;
Production Technologies;
Innovation and Invention;
Entrepreneurship;
Economic Growth;
Competition;
Organizational Design;
Economic Slowdown and Stagnation
Andrews, Michael J., Aaron Chatterji, Josh Lerner, and Scott Stern, eds. The Role of Innovation and Entrepreneurship in Economic Growth. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2022.
- 2022
- Working Paper
Heterogeneous Investors and Stock Market Fluctuations
By: Odhrain McCarthy and Sebastian Hillenbrand
We introduce a heterogeneous agent model which features extrapolative beliefs and time-varying risk aversion. The model leads to an empirical framework which we estimate with stock prices, survey data and risk aversion measures. We find that extrapolative beliefs and...
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McCarthy, Odhrain, and Sebastian Hillenbrand. "Heterogeneous Investors and Stock Market Fluctuations." Working Paper, January 2022.
- Article
A Prescriptive Analytics Framework for Optimal Policy Deployment Using Heterogeneous Treatment Effects
By: Edward McFowland III, Sandeep Gangarapu, Ravi Bapna and Tianshu Sun
We define a prescriptive analytics framework that addresses the needs of a constrained decision-maker facing, ex ante, unknown costs and benefits of multiple policy levers. The framework is general in nature and can be deployed in any utility maximizing context, public...
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Keywords:
Prescriptive Analytics;
Heterogeneous Treatment Effects;
Optimization;
Observed Rank Utility Condition (OUR);
Between-treatment Heterogeneity;
Machine Learning;
Decision Making;
Analysis;
Mathematical Methods
McFowland III, Edward, Sandeep Gangarapu, Ravi Bapna, and Tianshu Sun. "A Prescriptive Analytics Framework for Optimal Policy Deployment Using Heterogeneous Treatment Effects." MIS Quarterly 45, no. 4 (December 2021): 1807–1832.
- 2024
- Working Paper
What Drives Variation in Investor Portfolios? Estimating the Roles of Beliefs and Risk Preferences
We present an empirical model of portfolio choice that allows for the nonparametric estimation of investors' (subjective) expectations and risk preferences. Utilizing a comprehensive dataset of 401(k) plans from 2009 through 2019, we explore heterogeneity in asset...
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Keywords:
Stock Market Expectations;
Demand Estimation;
Retirement Planning;
Defined Contribution Retirement Plan;
401 (K);
Finance;
Investment Portfolio;
Investment;
Retirement;
Behavioral Finance;
Financial Services Industry;
United States
Egan, Mark, Alexander MacKay, and Hanbin Yang. "What Drives Variation in Investor Portfolios? Estimating the Roles of Beliefs and Risk Preferences." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-044, December 2021. (Revised April 2024. Direct download. NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29604, December 2021)