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- December 2021
- Article
Partisan Professionals: Evidence from Credit Rating Analysts
By: Elisabeth Kempf and Margarita Tsoutsoura
Partisan perception affects the actions of professionals in the financial sector. Using a novel dataset linking credit rating analysts to party affiliations from voter records, we show that analysts who are not affiliated with the U.S. president’s party downward-adjust...
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Keywords:
Political Affiliation;
Credit Rating Agencies;
Political Partisanship;
Political Elections;
Perception;
Credit
Kempf, Elisabeth, and Margarita Tsoutsoura. "Partisan Professionals: Evidence from Credit Rating Analysts." Journal of Finance 76, no. 6 (December 2021): 2805–2856.
- January 2020
- Article
The Job Rating Game: Revolving Doors and Analyst Incentives
By: Elisabeth Kempf
Investment banks frequently hire analysts from rating agencies. While many argue that this "revolving door" creates captured analysts, it can also create incentives to improve accuracy. To study this issue, I construct an original dataset, linking analysts to their...
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Keywords:
Credit Rating Agencies;
Investment Banking;
Recruitment;
Performance Evaluation;
Financial Services Industry
Kempf, Elisabeth. "The Job Rating Game: Revolving Doors and Analyst Incentives." Journal of Financial Economics 135, no. 1 (January 2020): 41–67.
- April–May 2017
- Article
Career Concerns of Banking Analysts
By: Joanne Horton, George Serafeim and Shan Wu
We study how career concerns influence banking analysts' forecasts and how their forecasting behavior benefits both them and bank managers. We show that banking analysts issue early in the year relatively more optimistic and later in the year more pessimistic forecasts...
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Keywords:
Sell-side Analysts;
Analyst Forecasts;
Analysts;
Investment Recommendations;
Career Advancement;
Career Management;
Labor Mobility;
Labor Market;
Prejudice and Bias;
Personal Development and Career;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Investment Banking
Horton, Joanne, George Serafeim, and Shan Wu. "Career Concerns of Banking Analysts." Journal of Accounting & Economics 63, nos. 2-3 (April–May 2017): 231–252.
- August 2023
- Article
Do Rating Agencies Behave Defensively for Higher Risk Issuers?
By: Samuel B. Bonsall IV, Kevin Koharki, Pepa Kraft, Karl A. Muller III and Anywhere Sikochi
We examine whether rating agencies act defensively toward issuers with a higher likelihood of default. We find that agencies' qualitative soft rating adjustments are more accurate as issuers' default risk grows, as evidenced by the adjustments leading to lower Type I...
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Keywords:
Credit Rating Agencies;
Soft Rating Adjustments;
Default;
Credit;
Performance Evaluation;
Measurement and Metrics;
Financial Institutions;
Risk Management
Bonsall, Samuel B., IV, Kevin Koharki, Pepa Kraft, Karl A. Muller III, and Anywhere Sikochi. "Do Rating Agencies Behave Defensively for Higher Risk Issuers?" Management Science 69, no. 8 (August 2023): 4864–4887.
- 2021
- Working Paper
International Evidence on the Effects of a Local Presence by U.S. Credit Rating Agencies
By: Liran Eliner, Michael Machokoto and Anywhere Sikochi
Major U.S. credit rating agencies are criticized for failing to understand developments in other economies and thereby impeding capital access by assigning lower ratings. Consistent with this, we find that Moody's and S&P credit ratings are more favorable after the...
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Keywords:
Credit Rating Agencies;
Credit Ratings;
Rating Adjustments;
Rating Disagreement;
Geographic Proximity;
Soft Information;
Credit;
Geographic Location;
Local Range
Eliner, Liran, Michael Machokoto, and Anywhere Sikochi. "International Evidence on the Effects of a Local Presence by U.S. Credit Rating Agencies." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-083, February 2020. (Revised August 2021.)
- July – August 2011
- Article
What Factors Drive Analyst Forecasts?
A firm's competitive environment, its strategic choices, and its internal capabilities are considered important determinants of its future performance. Yet there is little evidence on whether analysts' forecasts of firm performance actually reflect any of these factors...
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Keywords:
Competition;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Industry Growth;
Judgments;
Performance;
Valuation;
Price;
Quality;
Innovation and Invention;
Organizational Culture;
Competency and Skills;
Surveys
Groysberg, Boris, Paul Healy, Nitin Nohria, and George Serafeim. "What Factors Drive Analyst Forecasts?" Financial Analysts Journal 67, no. 4 (July–August 2011).
- 2021
- Article
An Empirical Examination of Sell-Side Brokerage Analysts' Published Research, Concierge Services, and High-Touch Services
By: David A. Maber, Boris Groysberg and Paul M. Healy
This paper uses a proprietary panel dataset to categorize and quantify the activities that sell-side brokerage analysts use to build and sustain their network of buy-side client relations. We then examine the marginal impact of these activities on key analyst outcome...
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Maber, David A., Boris Groysberg, and Paul M. Healy. "An Empirical Examination of Sell-Side Brokerage Analysts' Published Research, Concierge Services, and High-Touch Services." European Accounting Review 30, no. 4 (2021): 827–853.
- 18 Oct 2004
- Research & Ideas
The Bias of Wall Street Analysts
If it's one lesson the individual investor learned the hard way from the collapse of Enron, it is that the recommendations of Wall Street stock analysts can be influenced by much more than purely objective research. Just look at the large...
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- October 2008
- Article
Sociopolitical Dynamics in Relations Between Top Managers and Security Analysts: Favor Rendering, Reciprocity, and Analyst Stock Recommendations
By: James Westphal and Michael B. Clement
We examine how the disclosure of negative firm information may prompt top executives to render personal and professional favors for security analysts, who may reciprocate by rating firms relatively positively. We further examine how negative ratings may prompt...
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Westphal, James, and Michael B. Clement. "Sociopolitical Dynamics in Relations Between Top Managers and Security Analysts: Favor Rendering, Reciprocity, and Analyst Stock Recommendations." Academy of Management Journal 51, no. 5 (October 2008): 873–897.
- 09 Mar 2021
- Working Paper Summaries
Stock Price Reactions to ESG News: The Role of ESG Ratings and Disagreement
- 13 Jun 2012
- HBS Case
HBS Cases: A Startup Takes On the Credit Ratings Giants
Three. Should it focus its business on a single sector such as structured products or attack multiple sectors? How could enough skilled analysts be recruited quickly? How would the firm acquire status as a Nationally Recognized...
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- July 2015
- Article
The Impact of Corporate Social Responsibility on Investment Recommendations: Analysts' Perceptions and Shifting Institutional Logics
By: Ioannis Ioannou and George Serafeim
We explore the impact of corporate social responsibility (CSR) ratings on sell-side analysts' assessments of firms' future financial performance. We suggest that when analysts perceive CSR as an agency cost, due to the prevalence of an agency logic, they produce...
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Keywords:
Corporate Social Responsibility;
Analysts;
Investment Recommendations;
Sustainability;
Institutional Logics;
Environment;
Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact;
Investment;
Corporate Governance;
United States
Ioannou, Ioannis, and George Serafeim. "The Impact of Corporate Social Responsibility on Investment Recommendations: Analysts' Perceptions and Shifting Institutional Logics." Strategic Management Journal 36, no. 7 (July 2015): 1053–1081.
- March 2006 (Revised April 2015)
- Case
China: To Float or Not To Float? (B)- Timeline of Changes Relevant to the Chinese Renminbi
By: Laura Alfaro and Rafael M. Di Tella
On July 21, 2005 China revalued its decade-long quasi-fixed exchange rate of approximately 8.28 yuan per U.S. dollar by 2.1% to 8.11% and, at the same time, introduced a more market-based exchange rate system. Many analysts and economists were disappointed with what...
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Keywords:
Currency;
Exchange Rate;
China;
Macroeconomics;
Trade;
Currency Exchange Rate;
Governance Controls;
Policy;
China;
United States
Alfaro, Laura, and Rafael M. Di Tella. "China: To Float or Not To Float? (B)- Timeline of Changes Relevant to the Chinese Renminbi." Harvard Business School Case 706-022, March 2006. (Revised April 2015.)
- September 2022 (Revised January 2023)
- Case
Bear to Bull: An Analyst’s Journey with Netflix
By: Aiyesha Dey, Joseph Pacelli, Jennifer G. Lawson and Tom Quinn
Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter said “hell freezing over” was more likely than him upgrading the “sell” rating he had maintained on movie and television streaming giant Netflix since 2011, despite meteoric subscriber and share price growth. In 2022, however,...
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Keywords:
Accounting;
Asset Pricing;
Cash Flow;
Investment;
Stocks;
Equity;
Analysis;
Attitudes;
Financial Services Industry;
Entertainment and Recreation Industry;
United States
Dey, Aiyesha, Joseph Pacelli, Jennifer G. Lawson, and Tom Quinn. "Bear to Bull: An Analyst’s Journey with Netflix." Harvard Business School Case 123-001, September 2022. (Revised January 2023.)
- March 1993 (Revised July 2008)
- Case
Liability Management at General Motors
By: Peter Tufano
An analyst at General Motors charged with managing the structure of the automaker's debt must decide whether and how to modify the interest rate exposure of the firm's most recent debt offering. The analyst must take into consideration GM's liability management policy...
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Keywords:
Borrowing and Debt;
Capital Structure;
Financial Management;
Interest Rates;
Risk Management;
Auto Industry;
North America
Tufano, Peter. "Liability Management at General Motors." Harvard Business School Case 293-123, March 1993. (Revised July 2008.)
- February 1994 (Revised July 2008)
- Case
Banc One Corporation: Asset and Liability Management
By: Benjamin C. Esty, Peter Tufano and Jon Headley
Banc One's share price has been falling recently due to analyst and investor concern over the bank's heavy use of interest rate derivatives. Dick Lodge, chief investment officer in charge of the bank's investment and derivative portfolio, must recommend to the CEO a...
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Keywords:
Credit Derivatives and Swaps;
Financial Management;
Interest Rates;
Investment Portfolio;
Governance Controls;
Risk Management;
Banking Industry
Esty, Benjamin C., Peter Tufano, and Jon Headley. "Banc One Corporation: Asset and Liability Management." Harvard Business School Case 294-079, February 1994. (Revised July 2008.)
- February 2023
- Teaching Note
Bear to Bull? An Analyst’s Journey with Netflix
By: Aiyesha Dey and Joseph Pacelli
Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 123-001. Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter said “hell freezing over” was more likely than him upgrading the “sell” rating he had maintained on movie and television streaming giant Netflix since 2011, despite meteoric subscriber...
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- March 2006 (Revised April 2010)
- Case
China: To Float or Not To Float? (A)
By: Laura Alfaro, Rafael M. Di Tella and Ingrid Vogel
On July 21, 2005 China revalued its decade-long quasi-fixed exchange rate of approximately 8.28 yuan per U.S. dollar by 2.1% to 8.11 and, at the same time, introduced a more market-based exchange rate system. Many analysts and economists were disappointed with what...
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Keywords:
Macroeconomics;
Trade;
Currency Exchange Rate;
Governance Controls;
Policy;
Growth and Development Strategy;
China
Alfaro, Laura, Rafael M. Di Tella, and Ingrid Vogel. "China: To Float or Not To Float? (A)." Harvard Business School Case 706-021, March 2006. (Revised April 2010.)
- October 2000 (Revised April 2001)
- Case
Cost of Capital at Ameritrade
By: Mark L. Mitchell and Erik Stafford
Ameritrade Holding Corp. is planning large marketing and technology investments to improve the company's competitive position in deep-discount brokerage by taking advantage of emerging economies of scale. In order to evaluate whether the strategy would generate...
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Keywords:
Developing Countries and Economies;
Asset Pricing;
Cash Flow;
Cost of Capital;
Investment;
Marketing;
Mathematical Methods;
Competition;
Information Technology;
Internet and the Web;
Financial Services Industry
Mitchell, Mark L., and Erik Stafford. "Cost of Capital at Ameritrade." Harvard Business School Case 201-046, October 2000. (Revised April 2001.)
- March 2008 (Revised April 2009)
- Case
Eliot Spitzer: Pushing Wall Street to Reform
By: Rawi Abdelal, Rafael Di Tella and Jonathan Schlefer
New York State Attorney General Eliot Spitzer faced a decision about how to stop wrongdoing committed by major Wall Street firms during the Internet boom. The equities analysts of Merrill Lynch and other Wall Street firms were charged with objectively advising retail...
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Keywords:
Crime and Corruption;
Decisions;
Financial Institutions;
Stocks;
Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms;
Laws and Statutes;
Lawsuits and Litigation;
Conflict of Interests;
Internet;
Financial Services Industry;
United States
Abdelal, Rawi, Rafael Di Tella, and Jonathan Schlefer. "Eliot Spitzer: Pushing Wall Street to Reform." Harvard Business School Case 708-019, March 2008. (Revised April 2009.)