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- May 2010
- Article
Aggregate Market Reaction to Earnings Announcements
By: William Cready and Umit G Gurun
This analysis identifies a distinct immediate announcement period negative relation between earnings announcement surprises and aggregate market returns. Such a relation implies that market participants use earnings information in forming expectations about expected...
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Cready, William, and Umit G Gurun. "Aggregate Market Reaction to Earnings Announcements." Journal of Accounting Research 48, no. 2 (May 2010): 289–334.
- January 2017
- Article
Being Surprised by the Unsurprising: Earnings Seasonality and Stock Returns
By: Tom Y. Chang, Samuel M. Hartzmark, David H. Solomon and Eugene F. Soltes
We present evidence consistent with markets failing to properly price information in seasonal earnings patterns. Firms with historically larger earnings in one quarter of the year (“positive seasonality quarters”) have higher returns when those earnings are usually...
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Chang, Tom Y., Samuel M. Hartzmark, David H. Solomon, and Eugene F. Soltes. "Being Surprised by the Unsurprising: Earnings Seasonality and Stock Returns." Review of Financial Studies 30, no. 1 (January 2017): 281–323.
- 2017
- Working Paper
Economic Uncertainty and Earnings Management
By: Luke C.D. Stein and Charles C.Y. Wang
In the presence of managerial short-termism and asymmetric information about skill and effort provision, firms may opportunistically shift earnings from uncertain to more certain times. We document empirically that when financial markets are less certain about a firm's...
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Keywords:
Discretionary Accruals;
Uncertainty;
Implied Volatility;
Earnings Response Coefficient;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Earnings Management;
Financial Markets
Stein, Luke C.D., and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Economic Uncertainty and Earnings Management." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-103, March 2016. (Revised April 2017.)
- July 2017
- Article
What Do Measures of Real-Time Corporate Sales Tell Us About Earnings Surprises and Post-announcement Returns?
By: Kenneth A. Froot, Namho Kang, Gideon Ozik and Ronnie Sadka
We develop real-time proxies of retail corporate sales from multiple sources, including approximately 50 million mobile devices. These measures contain information from both the earnings quarter (within quarter) and the period between that quarter's end and the...
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Froot, Kenneth A., Namho Kang, Gideon Ozik, and Ronnie Sadka. "What Do Measures of Real-Time Corporate Sales Tell Us About Earnings Surprises and Post-announcement Returns?" Journal of Financial Economics 125, no. 1 (July 2017): 143–162. (Revised from NBER Working Paper No. 22366, June 2016, Harvard Business School Working Paper No. 16-123, April 2016.)
- 09 May 2016
- Working Paper Summaries
What Do Measures of Real-Time Corporate Sales Tell Us About Earnings Surprises and Post-announcement Returns?
- 22 Jun 2011
- Working Paper Summaries
The Surprising Power of Age-Dependent Taxes
Keywords:
by Matthew Weinzierl
- 2006
- Book
Who Really Cares: The Surprising Truth About Compassionate Conservatism
By: Arthur C. Brooks
We all know we should give to charity, but who really does? Approximately three-quarters of Americans give their time and money to various charities, churches, and causes; the other quarter of the population does not. Why has America split into two nations: givers and...
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Brooks, Arthur C. Who Really Cares: The Surprising Truth About Compassionate Conservatism. New York: Basic Books, 2006.
- 20 Oct 2008
- Research & Ideas
The Seven Things That Surprise New CEOs
released On Competition, Porter collects his most influential articles from HBR, and adds new work on health care, philanthropy, social responsibility, and leadership. This excerpt, coauthored with Harvard Business School professors Jay W. Lorsch and Nitin Nohria,...
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- August 2010
- Supplement
Batson International, S.A. (B)
By: David F. Hawkins
A surprise internal audit of a division's accounting practices reveals a number of possible earnings management and accounting irregularities.
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Keywords:
Accounting Audits;
Earnings Management;
Financial Reporting;
International Accounting;
Standards;
United States
Hawkins, David F. "Batson International, S.A. (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 111-024, August 2010.
- Research Summary
Analyst Disagreement, Forecast Bias and Stock Returns
We present evidence of inefficient information processing in
equity markets by documenting that biases in analysts' earnings
forecasts are reflected in stock prices. In particular, investors
fail to account for analysts' tendency to withhold negative views
and to issue...
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- November 2020
- Article
Casting Conference Calls
By: Lauren Cohen, Dong Lou and Christopher J. Malloy
We explore a subtle but important mechanism through which firms can control information flow to the markets. We find that firms that “cast” their conference calls by disproportionately calling on bullish analysts tend to underperform in the future. Firms that call on...
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Cohen, Lauren, Dong Lou, and Christopher J. Malloy. "Casting Conference Calls." Management Science 66, no. 11 (November 2020): 5015–5039. (Winner of the First Prize, Crowell Memorial Award for Best Paper in Quantitative Investments, PanAgora Asset Management, 2014.)
- October–November 2019
- Article
A New Perspective on Post-Earnings-Announcement-Drift: Using a Relative Drift Measure
By: Michael Clement, Joonho Lee and Kevin Ow Yong
Prior research finds that there is a delayed reaction to both analyst-based earnings surprises and random-walk-based earnings surprises. Focusing on the market reaction from the post-announcement window, prior studies show that analyst-based drift is larger than random...
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Clement, Michael, Joonho Lee, and Kevin Ow Yong. "A New Perspective on Post-Earnings-Announcement-Drift: Using a Relative Drift Measure." Journal of Business Finance & Accounting 46, no. 9–10 (October–November 2019): 1123–1143.
- July 1997 (Revised August 1997)
- Case
numeric investors l.p.
By: Andre F. Perold and Brian J. Tierney
Numeric Investors manages equity portfolios with the use of a momentum model and a value model. The momentum model is based on earnings surprise and analysts' revisions of their earnings estimates. The firm offers long-short as well as long-only strategies, and its...
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Keywords:
Asset Management;
Cost;
Equity;
Financial Strategy;
Investment;
Investment Portfolio;
Management;
Product Development;
Performance Efficiency;
Business Strategy
Perold, Andre F., and Brian J. Tierney. "numeric investors l.p." Harvard Business School Case 298-012, July 1997. (Revised August 1997.)
- 2013
- Article
Learning and the Disappearing Association Between Governance and Returns
By: Lucian A. Bebchuk, Alma Cohen and Charles C.Y. Wang
The correlation between governance indices and abnormal returns documented for 1990–1999 subsequently disappeared. The correlation and its disappearance are both due to market participants' gradually learning to appreciate the difference between good-governance and...
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Keywords:
Corporate Governance;
Investment Return;
Operations;
Performance;
Value;
Learning;
Business Earnings;
Behavioral Finance
Bebchuk, Lucian A., Alma Cohen, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Learning and the Disappearing Association Between Governance and Returns." Journal of Financial Economics 108, no. 2 (May 2013): 323–348. (2013 IRRCi Investor Research Award.)
- December 2013
- Article
Legislating Stock Prices
By: Lauren Cohen, Karl Diether and Christopher Malloy
We demonstrate that legislation has a simple, yet previously undetected impact on stock prices. Exploiting the voting record of legislators whose constituents are the affected industries, we show that the votes of these "interested" legislators capture important...
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Keywords:
Legislator Incentives;
Voting;
Return Predictability;
Lobbying;
Motivation and Incentives;
Government Legislation;
Stocks
Cohen, Lauren, Karl Diether, and Christopher Malloy. "Legislating Stock Prices." Journal of Financial Economics 110, no. 3 (December 2013): 574–595. (Winner of Fama-DFA Prize for the Best Paper Published in the Journal of Financial Economics in Asset Pricing (Distinguished Paper) 2013.)
- 03 Oct 2022
- Research & Ideas
Why a Failed Startup Might Be Good for Your Career After All
In August, mega venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz announced a $350 million investment in residential real estate company Flow—the single largest investment the VC titan had ever made. But a bigger surprise than the investment...
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Keywords:
by Sean Silverthorne
- September 2022
- Article
The Limits of Inconspicuous Incentives
By: Leslie K. John, Hayley Blunden, Katherine Milkman, Luca Foschini and Bradford Tuckfield
Managers and policymakers regularly rely on incentives to encourage valued behaviors. While incentives are often successful, there are also notable and surprising examples of their ineffectiveness. Why? We propose a contributing factor may be that they are not...
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John, Leslie K., Hayley Blunden, Katherine Milkman, Luca Foschini, and Bradford Tuckfield. "The Limits of Inconspicuous Incentives." Art. 104180. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 172 (September 2022).
- 27 Feb 2024
- Research & Ideas
Why Companies Should Share Their DEI Data (Even When It’s Unflattering)
requirements alongside their own disclosure. More diversity is better It’s no surprise that companies that disclose better progress on diversity metrics fare better with consumers. When a company shares that its workforce is relatively...
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Keywords:
by Shalene Gupta
- February 2024
- Case
CLSA: Integrating ESG in Stock Valuation
By: Shirley Lu, Aaron Yoon and Billy Chan
In 2023, a senior financial analyst at the Hong Kong-based stock brokerage firm CLSA was surprised to see that, based on his calculations, the financial impact from climate risks on a major Indian cement manufacturing company’s projected earnings could be massive....
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- 17 Sep 2013
- First Look
First Look: September 17
calling on bullish analysts tend to underperform in the future. Firms that call on more favorable analysts experience more negative future earnings surprises and more future View Details
Keywords:
Sean Silverthorne