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- Research (1,371)
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- Faculty Publications (1,059)
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Decision Making Under Uncertainty
By: David E. Bell
Many of the decisions we face are made complicated by having uncertain consequences: how should I set my inventory when I don’t know what demand will be, should I refinance my mortgage when rates might go lower, how big a bet shall I make in a new business, and so... View Details
- 31 Aug 2020
- Working Paper Summaries
The Pass-Through of Uncertainty Shocks to Households
- June 2023
- Article
When Does Uncertainty Matter? Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making
By: Sean McGrath, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage and Himabindu Lakkaraju
As machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being employed to assist human decision
makers, it becomes critical to provide these decision makers with relevant inputs which can
help them decide if and how to incorporate model predictions into their decision...
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McGrath, Sean, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "When Does Uncertainty Matter? Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making." Transactions on Machine Learning Research (TMLR) (June 2023).
- July–August 2023
- Article
Investing in Growth Through Uncertainty
By: Ranjay Gulati
When faced with disruptions and downturns, many leaders and companies instinctively focus on cutting costs to maintain profitability. But some identify opportunities and then take thoughtful action to emerge from crisis even stronger. That means not only planning for...
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Gulati, Ranjay. "Investing in Growth Through Uncertainty." Harvard Business Review 101, no. 4 (July–August 2023): 36–42.
- February 2024
- Case
Nuwa Capital: Investing During Uncertainty
By: Paul A. Gompers and Fares Khrais
Nuwa Capital (Nuwa) was a venture capital firm based in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates and Riyadh in Saudi Arabia. The business was founded in 2020 by Khaled Talhouni and his partners Sarah Abu Risheh, and Stephanie Nour Prince (they were later joined by Nitin Reen...
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Keywords:
Corporate Entrepreneurship;
Business Startups;
Disruption;
Entrepreneurship;
Venture Capital;
Investment;
Growth and Development Strategy;
Business Strategy;
Middle East;
Saudi Arabia;
United Arab Emirates
Gompers, Paul A., and Fares Khrais. "Nuwa Capital: Investing During Uncertainty." Harvard Business School Case 224-016, February 2024.
- Research Summary
Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts
Measuring demand uncertainty is a key activity in supply chain planning, but is difficult when demand history is unavailable such as for new products. One method that can be applied in such cases uses dispersion among forecasting experts as a measure of demand...
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- June 1992
- Article
The Strategic Management of Uncertainty
By: David J. Collis
Collis, David J. "The Strategic Management of Uncertainty." European Management Journal 10, no. 2 (June 1992): 125–135.
- 1 May 2011
- Conference Presentation
Leading Under Conditions of Uncertainty
By: Scott Snook
Keywords:
Leadership
- 2024
- Conference Paper
Quantifying Uncertainty in Natural Language Explanations of Large Language Models
By: Himabindu Lakkaraju, Sree Harsha Tanneru and Chirag Agarwal
Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used as powerful tools for several
high-stakes natural language processing (NLP) applications. Recent prompting
works claim to elicit intermediate reasoning steps and key tokens that serve as
proxy explanations for LLM...
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Lakkaraju, Himabindu, Sree Harsha Tanneru, and Chirag Agarwal. "Quantifying Uncertainty in Natural Language Explanations of Large Language Models." Paper presented at the Society for Artificial Intelligence and Statistics, 2024.
- March 2001
- Background Note
Real Options Valuation when Multiple Sources of Uncertainty Exist
This case describes how multiple sources of uncertainty can be incorporated into a real-options-based analysis. It works through an example of a two-stage problem where a company has both an option to explore and an option to develop oil reserves.
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Meulbroek, Lisa K. "Real Options Valuation when Multiple Sources of Uncertainty Exist." Harvard Business School Background Note 201-106, March 2001.
- Other Unpublished Work
Inflation Uncertainty and the Wage Bargain
By: Lucy White and Hans-Joachim Voth
- February 1984 (Revised March 1984)
- Exercise
Exercises on Capital Budgeting Under Uncertainty
By: David E. Bell
Bell, David E. "Exercises on Capital Budgeting Under Uncertainty." Harvard Business School Exercise 184-152, February 1984. (Revised March 1984.)
- fall 2007
- Article
Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts
By: Vishal Gaur, Saravanan Kesavan, Ananth Raman and Marshall L. Fisher
Gaur, Vishal, Saravanan Kesavan, Ananth Raman, and Marshall L. Fisher. "Estimating Demand Uncertainty Using Judgmental Forecasts." Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 9, no. 4 (fall 2007).
- 19 Nov 2004 - 22 Nov 2004
- Conference Presentation
Managing Innovation and Product Development...Under Uncertainty
By: Alan MacCormack
- 2021
- Working Paper
Consuming Contests: Outcome Uncertainty and Spectator Demand for Contest-based Entertainment
By: Patrick J. Ferguson and Karim R. Lakhani
Contests that are designed to be consumed for entertainment by non-contestants are a fixture of economic, cultural and political life. In this paper, we examine whether individuals prefer to consume contests that have more uncertain outcomes. We look to...
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Keywords:
Contest Design;
Information Preferences;
Consumer Demand;
Sports;
Entertainment;
Games, Gaming, and Gambling;
Demand and Consumers;
Outcome or Result
Ferguson, Patrick J., and Karim R. Lakhani. "Consuming Contests: Outcome Uncertainty and Spectator Demand for Contest-based Entertainment." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-087, February 2021.
- Article
Reliable Post hoc Explanations: Modeling Uncertainty in Explainability
By: Dylan Slack, Sophie Hilgard, Sameer Singh and Himabindu Lakkaraju
As black box explanations are increasingly being employed to establish model credibility in high stakes settings, it is important to ensure that these explanations are accurate and reliable. However, prior work demonstrates that explanations generated by...
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Keywords:
Black Box Explanations;
Bayesian Modeling;
Decision Making;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Information Technology
Slack, Dylan, Sophie Hilgard, Sameer Singh, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "Reliable Post hoc Explanations: Modeling Uncertainty in Explainability." Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) 34 (2021).
- 2021
- Working Paper
When Does Uncertainty Matter?: Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making
By: Sean McGrath, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage and Himabindu Lakkaraju
McGrath, Sean, Parth Mehta, Alexandra Zytek, Isaac Lage, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "When Does Uncertainty Matter?: Understanding the Impact of Predictive Uncertainty in ML Assisted Decision Making." Working Paper, January 2021.
- 17 Mar 2021
- Working Paper Summaries
Consuming Contests: Outcome Uncertainty and Spectator Demand for Contest-based Entertainment
- November 2012 (Revised January 2013)
- Case
Companion Diagnostics: Uncertainties for Approval and Reimbursement
By: Richard G. Hamermesh, Norman C. Selby and Phillip Andrews
The FDA approvals of novel therapeutics were seen as signs in the personalized medicine community of real progress in the growth of personalized medicine. The FDA's approval of such drugs, along with companion diagnostics, suggested a shift in thinking and regulatory...
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Keywords:
Models Of Reimbursement;
Personalized Medicine;
Regulation;
Healthcare Reform;
Health Care and Treatment;
Health Industry;
United States
Hamermesh, Richard G., Norman C. Selby, and Phillip Andrews. "Companion Diagnostics: Uncertainties for Approval and Reimbursement." Harvard Business School Case 813-037, November 2012. (Revised January 2013.)
- 2020
- Working Paper
Strategic Foresight as Dynamic Capability: A New Lens on Knightian Uncertainty
By: J. Peter Scoblic
This paper proposes to treat strategic foresight as a dynamic capability, providing a new theoretical lens on managerial judgment. Formulating strategy under uncertainty is a central challenge facing the modern firm. Analogy is thought to help managers make sense of...
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Keywords:
Foresight;
Dynamic Capabilities;
Managerial Judgment;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Management;
Strategy
Scoblic, J. Peter. "Strategic Foresight as Dynamic Capability: A New Lens on Knightian Uncertainty." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-093, March 2020.