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All HBS Web
(1,197)
- Faculty Publications (225)
- November 5, 2021
- Article
Leaders: Stop Confusing Correlation with Causation
By: Michael Luca
We’ve all been told that correlation does not imply causation. Yet many business leaders, elected officials, and media outlets still make causal claims based on misleading correlations. These claims are too often unscrutinized, amplified, and mistakenly used to guide...
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Keywords:
Behavioral Economics;
Data Analysis;
Organizations;
Decision Making;
Analytics and Data Science;
Analysis;
Learning
Luca, Michael. "Leaders: Stop Confusing Correlation with Causation." Harvard Business Review Digital Articles (November 5, 2021).
- November 2021
- Article
Panel Experiments and Dynamic Causal Effects: A Finite Population Perspective
By: Iavor Bojinov, Ashesh Rambachan and Neil Shephard
In panel experiments, we randomly assign units to different interventions, measuring their outcomes, and repeating the procedure in several periods. Using the potential outcomes framework, we define finite population dynamic causal effects that capture the relative...
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Keywords:
Panel Data;
Dynamic Causal Effects;
Potential Outcomes;
Finite Population;
Nonparametric;
Mathematical Methods
Bojinov, Iavor, Ashesh Rambachan, and Neil Shephard. "Panel Experiments and Dynamic Causal Effects: A Finite Population Perspective." Quantitative Economics 12, no. 4 (November 2021): 1171–1196.
- November 2021
- Article
The Effects of Retirement on Sense of Purpose in Life: Crisis or Opportunity?
By: Ayse Yemiscigil, Nattavudh Powdthavee and Ashley V. Whillans
Does retirement lead to an existential crisis or present an opportunity to experience a renewed sense of purpose in life? Prior research has documented a negative association between retirement and sense of purpose in life, suggesting that retirement could lead people...
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Yemiscigil, Ayse, Nattavudh Powdthavee, and Ashley V. Whillans. "The Effects of Retirement on Sense of Purpose in Life: Crisis or Opportunity?" Psychological Science 32, no. 11 (November 2021): 1856–1864.
- 2021
- Article
Don't Get It or Don't Spread It: Comparing Self-interested versus Prosocial Motivations for COVID-19 Prevention Behaviors
By: Jillian J. Jordan, Erez Yoeli and David Rand
COVID-19 prevention behaviors may be seen as self-interested or prosocial. Using American samples from MTurk and Prolific (total n = 6,850), we investigated which framing is more effective—and motivation is stronger—for fostering prevention behavior intentions. We...
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Keywords:
COVID-19;
Prevention;
Prosocial Motivation;
Health Pandemics;
Behavior;
Motivation and Incentives
Jordan, Jillian J., Erez Yoeli, and David Rand. "Don't Get It or Don't Spread It: Comparing Self-interested versus Prosocial Motivations for COVID-19 Prevention Behaviors." Art. 20222. Scientific Reports 11 (2021).
- 2021
- Working Paper
A (Dynamic) Investigation of Stereotypes, Belief-Updating, and Behavior
By: Katherine B. Coffman, Paola Ugalde Araya and Basit Zafar
Many decisions—such as what educational or career path to pursue—are dynamic in nature, with individuals receiving feedback at one point in time and making decisions later. Using a controlled experiment, with two sessions one week apart, we analyze the dynamic effects...
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Keywords:
Feedback;
Beliefs;
Stereotypes;
Self-assessment;
Gender Gap;
Performance;
Perception;
Gender;
Decision Making;
Behavior
Coffman, Katherine B., Paola Ugalde Araya, and Basit Zafar. "A (Dynamic) Investigation of Stereotypes, Belief-Updating, and Behavior." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29382, October 2021.
- October 2021
- Article
Board Design and Governance Failures at Peer Firms
By: Shelby Gai, J. Yo-Jud Cheng and Andy Wu
Our study introduces board committees as a crucial determinant of board actions. We examine how directors who structurally link different board committees—referred to as multi-committee directors (MCDs)—explain why some board actions are merely symbolic while others...
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Keywords:
Board Committees;
Board Monitoring;
New Director Nomination;
Peer Financial Restatements;
Governing and Advisory Boards;
Corporate Governance;
Performance Effectiveness
Gai, Shelby, J. Yo-Jud Cheng, and Andy Wu. "Board Design and Governance Failures at Peer Firms." Strategic Management Journal 42, no. 10 (October 2021): 1909–1938.
- 2021
- Working Paper
The Luck of the Draw: The Causal Effect of Physicians on Birth Outcomes
By: Arlen Guarin, Christian Posso, Estefania Saravia and Jorge Tamayo
Identifying the effect of physicians’ skills on health outcomes is a challenging task due to the nonrandom sorting between physicians and hospitals. We overcome this challenge by exploiting a Colombian government program that randomly assigned 2,126 physicians to 618...
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Keywords:
Physicians' Health Skills;
Health Birth Outcomes;
Birthing Outcomes;
Experimental Evidence;
Health Care and Treatment;
Competency and Skills;
Outcome or Result;
Health Industry;
Colombia
Guarin, Arlen, Christian Posso, Estefania Saravia, and Jorge Tamayo. "The Luck of the Draw: The Causal Effect of Physicians on Birth Outcomes." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-015, February 2021. (Revised November 2021.)
- Article
Measuring the Scientific Effectiveness of Contact Tracing: Evidence from a Natural Experiment
By: Thiemo Fetzer and Thomas Graeber
Contact tracing has for decades been a cornerstone of the public health approach to epidemics, including Ebola, severe acute respiratory syndrome, and now COVID-19. It has not yet been possible, however, to causally assess the method’s effectiveness using a randomized...
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Fetzer, Thiemo, and Thomas Graeber. "Measuring the Scientific Effectiveness of Contact Tracing: Evidence from a Natural Experiment." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118, no. 33 (August 17, 2021): 1–4.
- 2021
- Working Paper
Going to Extremes: Crucibles, Multiple Sensitive Periods, and Career Progression
By: Prithwiraj Choudhury, Sunasir Dutta, Hise O. Gibson and Eric Lin
We study the effects of crucible experiences along multiple sensitive periods on career progression. While prior literature has hinted that individuals can be imprinted during multiple sensitive periods, not just during the early career, there has been scant attention...
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Choudhury, Prithwiraj, Sunasir Dutta, Hise O. Gibson, and Eric Lin. "Going to Extremes: Crucibles, Multiple Sensitive Periods, and Career Progression." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-006, August 2021.
- 2021
- Working Paper
Consumer Choice and Corporate Bankruptcy
By: Samuel Antill and Megan Hunter
Using an incentivized randomized experiment, we estimate the causal effect of a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing on consumer demand for the bankrupt firm's products. Knowledge of Hertz's Chapter 11 bankruptcy reduces consumers' willingness-to-pay for Hertz by 35%. We show...
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Keywords:
Consumer Choice;
Bankruptcy;
Financial Distress;
Structural Estimation;
Experimental Economics;
Hertz;
Insolvency and Bankruptcy;
Consumer Behavior
Antill, Samuel, and Megan Hunter. "Consumer Choice and Corporate Bankruptcy." Working Paper, August 2021. (Revise & Resubmit, Journal of Finance.)
- 2021
- Working Paper
Multiple Team Membership, Turnover, and On-Time Delivery: Evidence from Construction Services
By: Hise O. Gibson, Bradely R. Staats and Ananth Raman
Firms who want to compete in dynamic markets are finding that they must build more agile operations to ensure success. One way for a firm to increase organizational agility is to allocate employees to multiple project teams, simultaneously—a practice known as multiple...
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Keywords:
Multiple Team Membership;
Turnover;
Fluid Teams;
Project Management;
Groups and Teams;
Projects;
Management;
Performance
Gibson, Hise O., Bradely R. Staats, and Ananth Raman. "Multiple Team Membership, Turnover, and On-Time Delivery: Evidence from Construction Services." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-004, July 2021.
- July 2021
- Article
Consumers—Especially Women—Avoid Buying from Firms with Higher Gender Pay Gaps
By: Tobias Schlager, Bhavya Mohan, Katherine DeCelles and Michael I. Norton
We document a unique driver of consumer behavior: the public disclosure of a firm’s gender pay gap. Four experiments provide causal evidence that when firms are revealed to have gender pay gaps, consumers are less willing to pay for their goods, a reaction driven by...
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Keywords:
Pay Gap;
Perceived Wage Fairness;
Purchase Intention;
Gender;
Wages;
Fairness;
Perception;
Consumer Behavior
Schlager, Tobias, Bhavya Mohan, Katherine DeCelles, and Michael I. Norton. "Consumers—Especially Women—Avoid Buying from Firms with Higher Gender Pay Gaps." Special Issue on Consumer Psychology for the Greater Good. Journal of Consumer Psychology 31, no. 3 (July 2021): 518–531.
- 2021
- Working Paper
Dirty Money: How Banks Influence Financial Crime
By: Joseph Pacelli, Janet Gao, Jan Schneemeier and Yufeng Wu
On September 21st, 2020, a consortium of international journalists leaked nearly 2,500 suspicious activity reports (SAR) obtained from the U.S. Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, exposing nearly $2 trillion of money laundering activity. The event raises important...
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Pacelli, Joseph, Janet Gao, Jan Schneemeier, and Yufeng Wu. "Dirty Money: How Banks Influence Financial Crime." Working Paper, July 2021.
- July 2021
- Article
How Trust and Distrust Shape Perception and Memory
By: Ann-Christin Posten and Francesca Gino
Trust is a key ingredient in decision making, as it allows us to rely on the information we receive. Although trust is usually viewed as a positive element of decision making, we suggest that its effects on memory are costly rather than beneficial. Across nine studies...
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Posten, Ann-Christin, and Francesca Gino. "How Trust and Distrust Shape Perception and Memory." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 121, no. 1 (July 2021): 43–58.
- Article
Emotional Acknowledgment: How Verbalizing Others' Emotions Fosters Interpersonal Trust
By: Alisa Yu, Justin M. Berg and Julian Zlatev
People often respond to others’ emotions using verbal acknowledgment (e.g., “You seem upset”). Yet, little is known about the relational benefits and risks of acknowledging others’ emotions in the workplace. We draw upon Costly Signaling Theory to posit how emotional...
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Keywords:
Emotion;
Costly Signaling;
Interpersonal Trust;
Emotional Valence;
Interpersonal Relationships;
Empathic Accuracy;
Emotions;
Relationships;
Trust;
Interpersonal Communication
Yu, Alisa, Justin M. Berg, and Julian Zlatev. "Emotional Acknowledgment: How Verbalizing Others' Emotions Fosters Interpersonal Trust." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 164 (May 2021): 116–135.
- 2021
- Working Paper
Which Markets (Don't) Drive Pharmaceutical Innovation? Evidence From U.S. Medicaid Expansions
By: Craig Garthwaite, Rebecca Sachs and Ariel Dora Stern
Pharmaceutical innovation policy involves managing a tradeoff between high prices for new products in the short-term and stronger incentives to develop products for the future. Prior research has documented a causal relationship between market size and pharmaceutical...
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Keywords:
Pharmaceuticals;
Medicaid;
Innovation and Invention;
Policy;
Markets;
Research and Development;
Pharmaceutical Industry
Garthwaite, Craig, Rebecca Sachs, and Ariel Dora Stern. "Which Markets (Don't) Drive Pharmaceutical Innovation? Evidence From U.S. Medicaid Expansions." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 28755, May 2021.
- 2021
- Working Paper
Diversity and Performance in Entrepreneurial Teams
By: Sophie Calder-Wang, Paul A. Gompers and Kevin Huang
We study the role of diversity and performance in the entrepreneurial teams. We exploit a unique dataset of MBA students who participated in a required course to propose and start a real micro-business that allows us to examine horizontal diversity (i.e., within the...
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Calder-Wang, Sophie, Paul A. Gompers, and Kevin Huang. "Diversity and Performance in Entrepreneurial Teams." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 28684, April 2021.
- April 2021
- Case
Zeynep Ton: The Good Jobs Strategy
By: Francesca Gino and Frances X. Frei
The link to this multimedia case should be provided to students in advance as preparation for classroom case discussion.
In Zeynop Ton’s 2014 book The Good Jobs Strategy: How the Smartest Companies Invest in Employees to Lower Costs and Boost... View Details
In Zeynop Ton’s 2014 book The Good Jobs Strategy: How the Smartest Companies Invest in Employees to Lower Costs and Boost... View Details
Keywords:
Organizations;
Selection and Staffing;
Compensation and Benefits;
Operations;
Performance Effectiveness
Gino, Francesca, and Frances X. Frei. "Zeynep Ton: The Good Jobs Strategy." Harvard Business School Multimedia/Video Case 921-703, April 2021.
- 2021
- Working Paper
Population Interference in Panel Experiments
By: Iavor I Bojinov, Kevin Wu Han and Guillaume Basse
The phenomenon of population interference, where a treatment assigned to one experimental unit affects another experimental unit's outcome, has received considerable attention in standard randomized experiments. The complications produced by population interference in...
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Bojinov, Iavor I., Kevin Wu Han, and Guillaume Basse. "Population Interference in Panel Experiments." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-100, March 2021.
- Article
CDS Trading and Nonrelationship Lending Dynamics
By: Jung Koo Kang, Christopher Williams and Regina Wittenberg-Moerman
We investigate how credit default swaps (CDSs) affect lenders’ incentives to initiate new lending relationships. We predict that CDSs reduce adverse selection that nonrelationship lead arrangers face when competing for loans. Consistently, we find that a loan is...
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Keywords:
Credit Default Swaps;
CDS Market;
Non-relationship Lending;
Debt Contracts;
Adverse Selection;
Lending Monitoring;
Cross-selling
Kang, Jung Koo, Christopher Williams, and Regina Wittenberg-Moerman. "CDS Trading and Nonrelationship Lending Dynamics." Review of Accounting Studies 26, no. 1 (March 2021): 258–292.