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- All HBS Web (972)
- Faculty Publications (319)
Show Results For
- All HBS Web (972)
- Faculty Publications (319)
- Article
The Cross Section of Expected Holding Period Returns and Their Dynamics: A Present Value Approach
By: Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
We provide a tractable model of firm-level expected holding period returns using two firm fundamentals—book-to-market ratio and ROE—and study the cross-sectional properties of the model-implied expected returns. We find that 1) firm-level expected returns and expected...
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Keywords:
Expected Returns;
Discount Rates;
Holding Period Returns;
Fundamental Valuation;
Present Value;
Valuation;
Investment Return
Lyle, Matthew R., and Charles C.Y. Wang. "The Cross Section of Expected Holding Period Returns and Their Dynamics: A Present Value Approach." Journal of Financial Economics 116, no. 3 (June 2015): 505–525.
- 2011
- Working Paper
The Flexible Substitution Logit: Uncovering Category Expansion and Share Impacts of Marketing Instruments
By: Qiang Liu, Thomas J. Steenburgh and Sachin Gupta
Different instruments are relevant for different marketing objectives (category demand expansion or market share stealing). To help brand managers make informed marketing mix decisions, it is essential that marketing mix models appropriately measure the different...
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Keywords:
Decision Choices and Conditions;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Investment;
Brands and Branding;
Marketing Strategy;
Demand and Consumers;
Mathematical Methods
Liu, Qiang, Thomas J. Steenburgh, and Sachin Gupta. "The Flexible Substitution Logit: Uncovering Category Expansion and Share Impacts of Marketing Instruments." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 12-012, September 2011.
- Article
Financial Innovation and Endogenous Growth
By: Luc Laeven, Ross Levine and Stelios Michalopoulos
Is financial innovation necessary for sustaining economic growth? To address this question, we build a Schumpeterian model in which entrepreneurs earn profits by inventing better goods, and profit-maximizing financiers arise to screen entrepreneurs. The model has two...
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Laeven, Luc, Ross Levine, and Stelios Michalopoulos. "Financial Innovation and Endogenous Growth." Journal of Financial Intermediation 24, no. 1 (January 2015): 1–24.
- 06 Jun 2016
- News
Your Investment Tool Is Failing You
- July 2016
- Article
Taxation, Corruption, and Growth
By: Philippe Aghion, Ufuk Akcigit, Julia Cagé and William R. Kerr
We build an endogenous growth model to analyze the relationships between taxation, corruption, and economic growth. Entrepreneurs lie at the center of the model and face disincentive effects from taxation but acquire positive benefits from public infrastructure....
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Keywords:
Endogenous Growth;
Public Goods;
Corruption;
Crime and Corruption;
Entrepreneurship;
Taxation;
Economic Growth
Aghion, Philippe, Ufuk Akcigit, Julia Cagé, and William R. Kerr. "Taxation, Corruption, and Growth." Special Issue on The Economics of Entrepreneurship. European Economic Review 86 (July 2016): 24–51.
- Forthcoming
- Article
Imagining the Future: Memory, Simulation and Beliefs
By: Pedro Bordalo, Giovanni Burro, Katherine B. Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
How do people form beliefs about novel risks, with which they have little or no experience? Motivated by survey data on beliefs about Covid we collected in 2020, we build a model based on the psychology of selective memory. When a person thinks about an event,...
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Bordalo, Pedro, Giovanni Burro, Katherine B. Coffman, Nicola Gennaioli, and Andrei Shleifer. "Imagining the Future: Memory, Simulation and Beliefs." Review of Economic Studies (forthcoming).
- November–December 2018
- Article
Slack Time and Innovation
By: Ajay Agrawal, Christian Catalini, Avi Goldfarb and Hong Luo
Traditional innovation models assume that new ideas are developed up to the point where the benefit of the marginal project is just equal to the cost. Because labor is a key input to innovation when the opportunity cost of time is lower, such as during school breaks or...
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Agrawal, Ajay, Christian Catalini, Avi Goldfarb, and Hong Luo. "Slack Time and Innovation." Organization Science 29, no. 6 (November–December 2018): 1056–1073.
- 2019
- Working Paper
Soul and Machine (Learning)
By: Davide Proserpio, John R. Hauser, Xiao Liu, Tomomichi Amano, Alex Burnap, Tong Guo, Dokyun Lee, Randall Lewis, Kanishka Misra, Eric Schwarz, Artem Timoshenko, Lilei Xu and Hema Yoganarasimhan
Machine learning is bringing us self-driving cars, improved medical diagnostics, and machine translation, but can it improve marketing decisions? It can. Machine learning models predict extremely well, are scalable to “big data,” and are a natural fit to rich media...
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Proserpio, Davide, John R. Hauser, Xiao Liu, Tomomichi Amano, Alex Burnap, Tong Guo, Dokyun Lee, Randall Lewis, Kanishka Misra, Eric Schwarz, Artem Timoshenko, Lilei Xu, and Hema Yoganarasimhan. "Soul and Machine (Learning)." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-036, September 2019.
- February 2020
- Article
Being 'Good' or 'Good Enough': Prosocial Risk and the Structure of Moral Self-regard
By: Julian Zlatev, Daniella M. Kupor, Kristin Laurin and Dale T. Miller
The motivation to feel moral powerfully guides people’s prosocial behavior. We propose that people’s efforts to preserve their moral self-regard conform to a moral threshold model. This model predicts that people are primarily concerned with whether their...
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Keywords:
Prosocial Behavior;
Moral Sensibility;
Decision Making;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Behavior;
Perception
Zlatev, Julian, Daniella M. Kupor, Kristin Laurin, and Dale T. Miller. "Being 'Good' or 'Good Enough': Prosocial Risk and the Structure of Moral Self-regard." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 118, no. 2 (February 2020): 242–253.
- 07 Jan 2019
- Research & Ideas
The Better Way to Forecast the Future
different fields,” says Grushka-Cockayne, whose research is on data science, forecasting, project management, and behavioral decision-making. “Our work is focused on using crowds for prediction and for forecasting something that is...
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- October 2015
- Article
Agglomerative Forces and Cluster Shapes
By: William R. Kerr and Scott Duke Kominers
We model spatial clusters of similar firms. Our model highlights how agglomerative forces lead to localized, individual connections among firms, while interaction costs generate a defined distance over which attraction forces operate. Overlapping firm interactions...
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Keywords:
Agglomeration;
Clusters;
Industrial Organization;
Silicon Valley;
Technology Flows;
Patents;
Networks;
Information Technology;
Industry Clusters;
Entrepreneurship;
California
Kerr, William R., and Scott Duke Kominers. "Agglomerative Forces and Cluster Shapes." Review of Economics and Statistics 97, no. 4 (October 2015): 877–899.
- October–December 2022
- Article
Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem
By: Mochen Yang, Edward McFowland III, Gordon Burtch and Gediminas Adomavicius
Combining machine learning with econometric analysis is becoming increasingly prevalent in both research and practice. A common empirical strategy involves the application of predictive modeling techniques to "mine" variables of interest from available data, followed...
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Keywords:
Machine Learning;
Econometric Analysis;
Instrumental Variable;
Random Forest;
Causal Inference;
AI and Machine Learning;
Forecasting and Prediction
Yang, Mochen, Edward McFowland III, Gordon Burtch, and Gediminas Adomavicius. "Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem." INFORMS Journal on Data Science 1, no. 2 (October–December 2022): 138–155.
- October 2016 (Revised April 2018)
- Case
DataXu: Selling Ad Tech
By: Frank V. Cespedes, John Deighton, Lisa Cox and Olivia Hull
DataXu served marketers by buying digital advertising for brands using its demand-side platform. It sought a way to build a more predictable revenue stream in the very transactional media marketplace, and hoped that two new marketing analytics products would give it a...
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Keywords:
Sales Management;
Pricing;
Programmatic Ad Buying;
"Marketing Analytics";
Advertising Technology;
Sales;
Digital Marketing;
Marketing Strategy;
Advertising Campaigns;
Product Launch;
Product Positioning;
Media;
Technology Industry;
Advertising Industry;
Boston;
Massachusetts
Cespedes, Frank V., John Deighton, Lisa Cox, and Olivia Hull. "DataXu: Selling Ad Tech." Harvard Business School Case 817-012, October 2016. (Revised April 2018.)
- May 2023
- Article
Equilibrium Effects of Pay Transparency
By: Zoë B. Cullen and Bobak Pakzad-Hurson
The public discourse around pay transparency has focused on the direct effect: how workers seek
to rectify newly-disclosed pay inequities through renegotiations. The question of how wage-setting
and hiring practices of the firm respond in equilibrium has received...
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Keywords:
Pay Transparency;
Online Labor Market;
Privacy;
Wage Gap;
Corporate Disclosure;
Wages;
Negotiation
Cullen, Zoë B., and Bobak Pakzad-Hurson. "Equilibrium Effects of Pay Transparency." Econometrica 91, no. 3 (May 2023): 765–802. (Lead Article.)
- 2023
- Working Paper
How People Use Statistics
By: Pedro Bordalo, John J. Conlon, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon and Andrei Shleifer
We document two new facts about the distributions of answers in famous statistical problems: they are i) multi-modal and ii) unstable with respect to irrelevant changes in the problem. We offer a model in which, when solving a problem, people represent each hypothesis...
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Bordalo, Pedro, John J. Conlon, Nicola Gennaioli, Spencer Yongwook Kwon, and Andrei Shleifer. "How People Use Statistics." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 31631, August 2023.
- 2010
- Working Paper
Agglomerative Forces and Cluster Shapes
By: William R. Kerr and Scott Duke Kominers
We model spatial clusters of similar firms. Our model highlights how agglomerative forces lead to localized, individual connections among firms, while interaction costs generate a defined distance over which attraction forces operate. Overlapping firm interactions...
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Keywords:
Entrepreneurship;
Geographic Location;
Patents;
Labor;
Industry Clusters;
Industry Structures;
Relationships;
Competitive Advantage;
Technology Industry;
California
Kerr, William R., and Scott Duke Kominers. "Agglomerative Forces and Cluster Shapes." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 11-061, December 2010.
- 2012
- Working Paper
Prominent Job Advertisements, Group Learning and Wage Dispersion
By: Julio J. Rotemberg
A model is presented in which people base their labor search strategy on the average wage and the average unemployment duration of people who belong to their peer group. It is shown that, if the distribution of wage offers is not stationary so lower wage offers tend to...
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Rotemberg, Julio J. "Prominent Job Advertisements, Group Learning and Wage Dispersion." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 18638, December 2012.
- 27 Feb 2019
- HBS Seminar