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  • April 2022
  • Article

Predictable Financial Crises
By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer and Jakob Ahm Sørensen
Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is...  View Details
Keywords: Financial Crisis; Global Range; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods
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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

Transferable Skills? Founders as Venture Capitalists
By: Paul A. Gompers and Vladimir Mukharlyamov
In this paper we explore whether or not the experience as a founder of a venture capital-backed startup influences the performance of founders who become venture capitalists (VCs). We find that nearly 7% of VCs were previously founders of a venture-backed startup....  View Details
Keywords: Founders; Venture Capital; Entrepreneurship; Performance; Personal Development and Career; Success
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  • 2022
  • Working Paper

The Transformation of Self Employment
By: Innessa Colaiacovo, Margaret Dalton, Sari Pekkala Kerr and William R. Kerr
Over the past half-century, while self-employment has consistently accounted for around one in ten of the United States workforce, its composition has changed. Since 1970, industries with high startup capital requirements have declined from 53% of self-employment to...  View Details
Keywords: Self-employment; Startup Investment; Occupational Choice; Financing; Small Business; Entrepreneurship; Business Startups; Financing and Loans
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  • 2021
  • Working Paper

The Political Economy of Anti-Bribery Enforcement
By: Lauren Cohen and Bo Li
This paper documents novel evidence on the influence of political incentives in the regulatory enforcement of foreign bribery. Using exogenous variation in the timing and geographic location of U.S. Congressional elections, we find that the probability of a Foreign...  View Details
Keywords: Bribery; Regulatory Enforcement; Crime and Corruption; Governance Controls; Political Elections
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  • Article

Financial Shame Spirals: How Shame Intensifies Financial Hardship
By: Joe J. Gladstone, Jon M. Jachimowicz, Adam Eric Greenberg and Adam D. Galinsky
Financial hardship is an established source of shame. This research explores whether shame is also a driver and exacerbator of financial hardship. Six experimental, archival, and correlational studies (N = 9,110)—including data from customer bank account histories and...  View Details
Keywords: Financial Hardship; Financial Decision-making; Shame; Guilt; Personal Finance; Financial Condition; Decision Making; Emotions
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  • November 2021
  • Article

Panel Experiments and Dynamic Causal Effects: A Finite Population Perspective
By: Iavor Bojinov, Ashesh Rambachan and Neil Shephard
In panel experiments, we randomly assign units to different interventions, measuring their outcomes, and repeating the procedure in several periods. Using the potential outcomes framework, we define finite population dynamic causal effects that capture the relative...  View Details
Keywords: Panel Data; Dynamic Causal Effects; Potential Outcomes; Finite Population; Nonparametric; Mathematical Methods
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  • October 2021
  • Article

Changing Gambling Behavior through Experiential Learning
By: Shawn A. Cole, Martin Abel and Bilal Zia
This paper tests experiential learning as a debiasing tool to reduce gambling in South Africa, through a randomized field experiment. The study implements a simple, interactive game that simulates the odds of winning the national lottery through dice rolling....  View Details
Keywords: Debiasing; Experiential Learning; Behavioral Economics; Financial Education; Learning; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Behavior; Decision Making
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  • 2021
  • Working Paper

Invisible Primes: Fintech Lending with Alternative Data
By: Marco Di Maggio, Dimuthu Ratnadiwakara and Don Carmichael
We exploit anonymized administrative data provided by a major fintech platform to investigate whether using alternative data to assess borrowers’ creditworthiness results in broader credit access. Comparing actual outcomes of the fintech platform’s model to...  View Details
Keywords: Fintech Lending; Alternative Data; Machine Learning; Algorithm Bias; Finance; Information Technology; Financing and Loans; Analytics and Data Science; Credit
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  • October 2021
  • Article

Judgment Aggregation in Creative Production: Evidence from the Movie Industry
By: Hong Luo, Jeffrey T. Macher and Michael Wahlen
We study a novel, low-cost approach to aggregating judgment from a large number of industry experts on ideas that they encounter in their normal course of business. Our context is the movie industry, in which customer appeal is difficult to predict and investment costs...  View Details
Keywords: Judgment Aggregation; Quality Uncertainty; Creative Industry; Project Evaluation And Selection; Creativity; Film Entertainment; Judgments; Motion Pictures and Video Industry
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  • 2021
  • Working Paper

The Luck of the Draw: The Causal Effect of Physicians on Birth Outcomes
By: Arlen Guarin, Christian Posso, Estefania Saravia and Jorge Tamayo
Identifying the effect of physicians’ skills on health outcomes is a challenging task due to the nonrandom sorting between physicians and hospitals. We overcome this challenge by exploiting a Colombian government program that randomly assigned 2,126 physicians to 618...  View Details
Keywords: Physicians' Health Skills; Health Birth Outcomes; Birthing Outcomes; Experimental Evidence; Health Care and Treatment; Competency and Skills; Outcome or Result; Health Industry; Colombia
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  • 2021
  • Working Paper

Salience
By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
We review the fast-growing work on salience and economic behavior. Psychological research shows that salient stimuli attract human attention “bottom up” due to their high contrast with surroundings, their surprising nature relative to recalled experiences, or their...  View Details
Keywords: Salience; Economic Behavior; Bottom Up Attention; Microeconomics; Decision Making; Behavior
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  • Summer 2021
  • Article

Predictable Country-level Bias in the Reporting of COVID-19 Deaths
By: Botir Kobilov, Ethan Rouen and George Serafeim
We examine whether a country’s management of the COVID-19 pandemic relate to the downward biasing of the number of reported deaths from COVID-19. Using deviations from historical averages of the total number of monthly deaths within a country, we find that the...  View Details
Keywords: COVID-19; Deaths; Reporting; Incentives; Government Policy; Health Pandemics; Health Care and Treatment; Country; Crisis Management; Outcome or Result; Reports; Policy
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  • July 2021
  • Article

Outsourcing Tasks Online: Matching Supply and Demand on Peer-to-Peer Internet Platforms
By: Zoë Cullen and Chiara Farronato
We study the growth of online peer-to-peer markets. Using data from TaskRabbit, an expanding marketplace for domestic tasks at the time of our study, we show that growth varies considerably across cities. To disentangle the potential drivers of growth, we look...  View Details
Keywords: Two-sided Market; Two-sided Platforms; Peer-to-peer Markets; Platform Strategy; Sharing Economy; Platform Growth; Internet and the Web; Digital Platforms; Strategy; Market Design; Network Effects
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  • 2021
  • Working Paper

Once Bitten, Twice Shy: Learning from Corporate Fraud and Corporate Governance Spillovers
By: Trung Nguyen
This paper finds that investors learn from their experience with corporate fraud and financial misconduct and modify their investment behavior to avoid suspicious firms and increase corporate governance efforts. More specially, mutual funds that experienced corporate...  View Details
Keywords: Institutional Investors; Investor Experience; Shareholder Voting; Corporate Fraud; Corporate Governance; Institutional Investing; Behavior; Change; Learning
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  • May 19, 2021
  • Article

Measuring the Impact of #MeToo on Gender Equity in Hollywood
By: Hong Luo and Laurina Zhang
The #MeToo movement has brought issues of sexual harassment and gender inequities to the forefront around the world. But how much of a tangible impact has it had on the experiences of women in the workplace? In this piece, the authors discuss their research that...  View Details
Keywords: #MeToo Movement; Gender Equity; Creative Industries; Impact; Gender; Equality and Inequality; Film Entertainment; Social Issues
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  • April 2021
  • Case

Distinct Software
By: Das Narayandas, Arijit Sengupta and Jonathan Wray
Distinct Software (disguised name), a global enterprise software company, is at an important point in its growth trajectory where the luster of its mantra of “grow and win at any cost” has dimmed with increasing competition and margin pressures. To help navigate its...  View Details
Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Marketing; Sales; Performance Productivity; Technological Innovation; AI and Machine Learning
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  • March 16, 2021
  • Article

From Driverless Dilemmas to More Practical Commonsense Tests for Automated Vehicles
By: Julian De Freitas, Andrea Censi, Bryant Walker Smith, Luigi Di Lillo, Sam E. Anthony and Emilio Frazzoli
For the first time in history, automated vehicles (AVs) are being deployed in populated environments. This unprecedented transformation of our everyday lives demands a significant undertaking: endowing complex autonomous systems with ethically acceptable behavior. We...  View Details
Keywords: Automated Driving; Public Health; Artificial Intelligence; Transportation; Health; Ethics; Policy; AI and Machine Learning
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  • Article

Job Loss, Credit and Crime in Colombia
By: Gaurav Khanna, Carlos Medina, Anant Nyshadham, Christian Posso and Jorge Tamayo
We investigate the effects of job displacement, as a result of mass layoffs, on criminal arrests using a matched employer-employee-crime dataset from Medellín, Colombia. Job displacement leads to immediate and persistent earnings losses and higher probability of arrest...  View Details
Keywords: Job Displacements; Job Cuts and Outsourcing; Crime and Corruption; Credit; Colombia; Medellín
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  • March 2021
  • Article

Last Place Aversion in Queues
By: Ryan W. Buell
This paper documents the effects of last place aversion in queues and its implications for customer experiences and behaviors as well as for operating performance. An observational analysis of customers queuing at a grocery store, and four online studies in which...  View Details
Keywords: Behavioral Operations; Queues; Reference Effects; Last Place Aversion; Transparency; Customers; Behavior; Satisfaction; Service Operations
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  • February 2021
  • Technical Note

Probability Distributions
By: Michael Parzen and Paul J. Hamilton
This technical note introduces students to the concept of random variables, and from there the normal and binomial distributions. After a brief introduction to random variables, the note describes the standard properties of the normal distribution: a single peak, and a...  View Details
Keywords: Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty; Theory
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