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Publications

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    • Faculty Publications  (162)

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    • All HBS Web  (1,851)
      • Faculty Publications  (162)

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      • April 2022
      • Article

      Predictable Financial Crises

      By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer and Jakob Ahm Sørensen
      Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is...  View Details
      Keywords: Financial Crisis; Global Range; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods
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      Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer, and Jakob Ahm Sørensen. "Predictable Financial Crises." Journal of Finance 77, no. 2 (April 2022): 863–921.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Transferable Skills? Founders as Venture Capitalists

      By: Paul A. Gompers and Vladimir Mukharlyamov
      In this paper we explore whether or not the experience as a founder of a venture capital-backed startup influences the performance of founders who become venture capitalists (VCs). We find that nearly 7% of VCs were previously founders of a venture-backed startup....  View Details
      Keywords: Founders; Venture Capital; Entrepreneurship; Performance; Personal Development and Career; Success
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      Gompers, Paul A., and Vladimir Mukharlyamov. "Transferable Skills? Founders as Venture Capitalists." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29907, April 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      The Transformation of Self Employment

      By: Innessa Colaiacovo, Margaret Dalton, Sari Pekkala Kerr and William R. Kerr
      Over the past half-century, while self-employment has consistently accounted for around one in ten of the United States workforce, its composition has changed. Since 1970, industries with high startup capital requirements have declined from 53% of self-employment to...  View Details
      Keywords: Self-employment; Startup Investment; Occupational Choice; Financing; Small Business; Entrepreneurship; Business Startups; Financing and Loans
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      Colaiacovo, Innessa, Margaret Dalton, Sari Pekkala Kerr, and William R. Kerr. "The Transformation of Self Employment." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-051, January 2022.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      The Political Economy of Anti-Bribery Enforcement

      By: Lauren Cohen and Bo Li
      This paper documents novel evidence on the influence of political incentives in the regulatory enforcement of foreign bribery. Using exogenous variation in the timing and geographic location of U.S. Congressional elections, we find that the probability of a Foreign...  View Details
      Keywords: Bribery; Regulatory Enforcement; Crime and Corruption; Governance Controls; Political Elections
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      Cohen, Lauren, and Bo Li. "The Political Economy of Anti-Bribery Enforcement." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29624, December 2021.
      • Article

      Financial Shame Spirals: How Shame Intensifies Financial Hardship

      By: Joe J. Gladstone, Jon M. Jachimowicz, Adam Eric Greenberg and Adam D. Galinsky
      Financial hardship is an established source of shame. This research explores whether shame is also a driver and exacerbator of financial hardship. Six experimental, archival, and correlational studies (N = 9,110)—including data from customer bank account histories and...  View Details
      Keywords: Financial Hardship; Financial Decision-making; Shame; Guilt; Personal Finance; Financial Condition; Decision Making; Emotions
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      Gladstone, Joe J., Jon M. Jachimowicz, Adam Eric Greenberg, and Adam D. Galinsky. "Financial Shame Spirals: How Shame Intensifies Financial Hardship." Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 167 (November 2021): 42–56.
      • November 2021
      • Article

      Panel Experiments and Dynamic Causal Effects: A Finite Population Perspective

      By: Iavor Bojinov, Ashesh Rambachan and Neil Shephard
      In panel experiments, we randomly assign units to different interventions, measuring their outcomes, and repeating the procedure in several periods. Using the potential outcomes framework, we define finite population dynamic causal effects that capture the relative...  View Details
      Keywords: Panel Data; Dynamic Causal Effects; Potential Outcomes; Finite Population; Nonparametric; Mathematical Methods
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      Bojinov, Iavor, Ashesh Rambachan, and Neil Shephard. "Panel Experiments and Dynamic Causal Effects: A Finite Population Perspective." Quantitative Economics 12, no. 4 (November 2021): 1171–1196.
      • October 2021
      • Article

      Changing Gambling Behavior through Experiential Learning

      By: Shawn A. Cole, Martin Abel and Bilal Zia
      This paper tests experiential learning as a debiasing tool to reduce gambling in South Africa, through a randomized field experiment. The study implements a simple, interactive game that simulates the odds of winning the national lottery through dice rolling....  View Details
      Keywords: Debiasing; Experiential Learning; Behavioral Economics; Financial Education; Learning; Games, Gaming, and Gambling; Behavior; Decision Making
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      Cole, Shawn A., Martin Abel, and Bilal Zia. "Changing Gambling Behavior through Experiential Learning." World Bank Economic Review 35, no. 3 (October 2021): 745–763.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Invisible Primes: Fintech Lending with Alternative Data

      By: Marco Di Maggio, Dimuthu Ratnadiwakara and Don Carmichael
      We exploit anonymized administrative data provided by a major fintech platform to investigate whether using alternative data to assess borrowers’ creditworthiness results in broader credit access. Comparing actual outcomes of the fintech platform’s model to...  View Details
      Keywords: Fintech Lending; Alternative Data; Machine Learning; Algorithm Bias; Finance; Information Technology; Financing and Loans; Analytics and Data Science; Credit
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      Di Maggio, Marco, Dimuthu Ratnadiwakara, and Don Carmichael. "Invisible Primes: Fintech Lending with Alternative Data." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-024, October 2021.
      • October 2021
      • Article

      Judgment Aggregation in Creative Production: Evidence from the Movie Industry

      By: Hong Luo, Jeffrey T. Macher and Michael Wahlen
      We study a novel, low-cost approach to aggregating judgment from a large number of industry experts on ideas that they encounter in their normal course of business. Our context is the movie industry, in which customer appeal is difficult to predict and investment costs...  View Details
      Keywords: Judgment Aggregation; Quality Uncertainty; Creative Industry; Project Evaluation And Selection; Creativity; Film Entertainment; Judgments; Motion Pictures and Video Industry
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      Luo, Hong, Jeffrey T. Macher, and Michael Wahlen. "Judgment Aggregation in Creative Production: Evidence from the Movie Industry." Management Science 67, no. 10 (October 2021): 6358–6377.
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      The Luck of the Draw: The Causal Effect of Physicians on Birth Outcomes

      By: Arlen Guarin, Christian Posso, Estefania Saravia and Jorge Tamayo
      Identifying the effect of physicians’ skills on health outcomes is a challenging task due to the nonrandom sorting between physicians and hospitals. We overcome this challenge by exploiting a Colombian government program that randomly assigned 2,126 physicians to 618...  View Details
      Keywords: Physicians' Health Skills; Health Birth Outcomes; Birthing Outcomes; Experimental Evidence; Health Care and Treatment; Competency and Skills; Outcome or Result; Health Industry; Colombia
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      Guarin, Arlen, Christian Posso, Estefania Saravia, and Jorge Tamayo. "The Luck of the Draw: The Causal Effect of Physicians on Birth Outcomes." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-015, February 2021. (Revised November 2021.)
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Salience

      By: Pedro Bordalo, Nicola Gennaioli and Andrei Shleifer
      We review the fast-growing work on salience and economic behavior. Psychological research shows that salient stimuli attract human attention “bottom up” due to their high contrast with surroundings, their surprising nature relative to recalled experiences, or their...  View Details
      Keywords: Salience; Economic Behavior; Bottom Up Attention; Microeconomics; Decision Making; Behavior
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      Bordalo, Pedro, Nicola Gennaioli, and Andrei Shleifer. "Salience." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29274, September 2021.
      • Summer 2021
      • Article

      Predictable Country-level Bias in the Reporting of COVID-19 Deaths

      By: Botir Kobilov, Ethan Rouen and George Serafeim
      We examine whether a country’s management of the COVID-19 pandemic relate to the downward biasing of the number of reported deaths from COVID-19. Using deviations from historical averages of the total number of monthly deaths within a country, we find that the...  View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19; Deaths; Reporting; Incentives; Government Policy; Health Pandemics; Health Care and Treatment; Country; Crisis Management; Outcome or Result; Reports; Policy
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      Kobilov, Botir, Ethan Rouen, and George Serafeim. "Predictable Country-level Bias in the Reporting of COVID-19 Deaths." Journal of Government and Economics 2 (Summer 2021).
      • July 2021
      • Article

      Outsourcing Tasks Online: Matching Supply and Demand on Peer-to-Peer Internet Platforms

      By: Zoë Cullen and Chiara Farronato
      We study the growth of online peer-to-peer markets. Using data from TaskRabbit, an expanding marketplace for domestic tasks at the time of our study, we show that growth varies considerably across cities. To disentangle the potential drivers of growth, we look...  View Details
      Keywords: Two-sided Market; Two-sided Platforms; Peer-to-peer Markets; Platform Strategy; Sharing Economy; Platform Growth; Internet and the Web; Digital Platforms; Strategy; Market Design; Network Effects
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      Cullen, Zoë, and Chiara Farronato. "Outsourcing Tasks Online: Matching Supply and Demand on Peer-to-Peer Internet Platforms." Management Science 67, no. 7 (July 2021).
      • 2021
      • Working Paper

      Once Bitten, Twice Shy: Learning from Corporate Fraud and Corporate Governance Spillovers

      By: Trung Nguyen
      This paper finds that investors learn from their experience with corporate fraud and financial misconduct and modify their investment behavior to avoid suspicious firms and increase corporate governance efforts. More specially, mutual funds that experienced corporate...  View Details
      Keywords: Institutional Investors; Investor Experience; Shareholder Voting; Corporate Fraud; Corporate Governance; Institutional Investing; Behavior; Change; Learning
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      Nguyen, Trung. "Once Bitten, Twice Shy: Learning from Corporate Fraud and Corporate Governance Spillovers." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-135, June 2021.
      • May 19, 2021
      • Article

      Measuring the Impact of #MeToo on Gender Equity in Hollywood

      By: Hong Luo and Laurina Zhang
      The #MeToo movement has brought issues of sexual harassment and gender inequities to the forefront around the world. But how much of a tangible impact has it had on the experiences of women in the workplace? In this piece, the authors discuss their research that...  View Details
      Keywords: #MeToo Movement; Gender Equity; Creative Industries; Impact; Gender; Equality and Inequality; Film Entertainment; Social Issues
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      Luo, Hong, and Laurina Zhang. "Measuring the Impact of #MeToo on Gender Equity in Hollywood." Harvard Business Review Digital Articles (May 19, 2021).
      • April 2021
      • Case

      Distinct Software

      By: Das Narayandas, Arijit Sengupta and Jonathan Wray
      Distinct Software (disguised name), a global enterprise software company, is at an important point in its growth trajectory where the luster of its mantra of “grow and win at any cost” has dimmed with increasing competition and margin pressures. To help navigate its...  View Details
      Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Marketing; Sales; Performance Productivity; Technological Innovation; AI and Machine Learning
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      Narayandas, Das, Arijit Sengupta, and Jonathan Wray. "Distinct Software." Harvard Business School Case 521-101, April 2021.
      • March 16, 2021
      • Article

      From Driverless Dilemmas to More Practical Commonsense Tests for Automated Vehicles

      By: Julian De Freitas, Andrea Censi, Bryant Walker Smith, Luigi Di Lillo, Sam E. Anthony and Emilio Frazzoli
      For the first time in history, automated vehicles (AVs) are being deployed in populated environments. This unprecedented transformation of our everyday lives demands a significant undertaking: endowing complex autonomous systems with ethically acceptable behavior. We...  View Details
      Keywords: Automated Driving; Public Health; Artificial Intelligence; Transportation; Health; Ethics; Policy; AI and Machine Learning
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      De Freitas, Julian, Andrea Censi, Bryant Walker Smith, Luigi Di Lillo, Sam E. Anthony, and Emilio Frazzoli. "From Driverless Dilemmas to More Practical Commonsense Tests for Automated Vehicles." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118, no. 11 (March 16, 2021).
      • Article

      Job Loss, Credit and Crime in Colombia

      By: Gaurav Khanna, Carlos Medina, Anant Nyshadham, Christian Posso and Jorge Tamayo
      We investigate the effects of job displacement, as a result of mass layoffs, on criminal arrests using a matched employer-employee-crime dataset from Medellín, Colombia. Job displacement leads to immediate and persistent earnings losses and higher probability of arrest...  View Details
      Keywords: Job Displacements; Job Cuts and Outsourcing; Crime and Corruption; Credit; Colombia; Medellín
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      Khanna, Gaurav, Carlos Medina, Anant Nyshadham, Christian Posso, and Jorge Tamayo. "Job Loss, Credit and Crime in Colombia." American Economic Review: Insights 3, no. 1 (March 2021): 97–114.
      • March 2021
      • Article

      Last Place Aversion in Queues

      By: Ryan W. Buell
      This paper documents the effects of last place aversion in queues and its implications for customer experiences and behaviors as well as for operating performance. An observational analysis of customers queuing at a grocery store, and four online studies in which...  View Details
      Keywords: Behavioral Operations; Queues; Reference Effects; Last Place Aversion; Transparency; Customers; Behavior; Satisfaction; Service Operations
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      Buell, Ryan W. "Last Place Aversion in Queues." Management Science 67, no. 3 (March 2021): 1430–1452.
      • February 2021
      • Technical Note

      Probability Distributions

      By: Michael Parzen and Paul J. Hamilton
      This technical note introduces students to the concept of random variables, and from there the normal and binomial distributions. After a brief introduction to random variables, the note describes the standard properties of the normal distribution: a single peak, and a...  View Details
      Keywords: Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty; Theory
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      Parzen, Michael, and Paul J. Hamilton. "Probability Distributions." Harvard Business School Technical Note 621-704, February 2021.
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