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- Faculty Publications (50)
- June 2015
- Supplement
Generating Higher Value at IBM (A): EPS Forecasting Model
By: Benjamin C. Esty and Scott Mayfield
This case analyzes IBM's financial performance and its capital allocation decisions over a 10-year period from 2004-2013, during which IBM returned more than $140B to shareholders through a combination of dividends and share repurchases. During this time, CEO Sam...
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- Article
Waves in Ship Prices and Investment
By: Robin Greenwood and Samuel G. Hanson
We study the link between investment boom and bust cycles and returns on capital in the dry bulk shipping industry. We show that high current ship earnings are associated with high used ship prices and heightened industry investment in new ships, but forecast low...
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Greenwood, Robin, and Samuel G. Hanson. "Waves in Ship Prices and Investment." Quarterly Journal of Economics 130, no. 1 (February 2015): 55–109.
- October 2014
- Case
Honeywell and the Great Recession (A)
By: Sandra J. Sucher and Susan J. Winterberg
CEO Dave Cote spent six years turning around an ailing Honeywell and in 2008 Cote and his team face a new challenge: how to respond to the Great Recession. Cote does not want to give up the gains he made in transforming and unifying Honeywell. With a fall-off in...
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Keywords:
Layoffs;
Furloughs;
Downsizing;
Work Sharing;
Short Time Work;
Recessions;
Earnings Forecast;
Job Cuts and Outsourcing;
Cost Management;
Executive Compensation;
Crisis Management;
Financial Crisis;
Manufacturing Industry
Sucher, Sandra J., and Susan J. Winterberg. "Honeywell and the Great Recession (A)." Harvard Business School Case 315-022, October 2014.
- October 2014
- Supplement
Honeywell and the Great Recession: The Economic Recovery (B)
By: Sandra J. Sucher and Susan J. Winterberg
Five years after the Great Recession, Honeywell's CEO Dave Cote and his executive team reflect on the choices they made to manage costs and earnings forecasts during that uncertain time. They discuss which cost cutting measures they decided to take and their personal...
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Keywords:
Layoffs;
Furloughs;
Downsizing;
Work Sharing;
Short Time Work;
Recessions;
Earnings Forecast;
Job Cuts and Outsourcing;
Cost Management;
Executive Compensation;
Crisis Management;
Financial Crisis;
Manufacturing Industry
Sucher, Sandra J., and Susan J. Winterberg. "Honeywell and the Great Recession: The Economic Recovery (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 315-023, October 2014.
- June 18, 2014
- Blog Post
How to Kill Quarterly Earnings Guidance
By: Gabriel Karageorgiou, Daniela Saltzman and George Serafeim
Karageorgiou, Gabriel, Daniela Saltzman, and George Serafeim. "How to Kill Quarterly Earnings Guidance." HBR Blog Network (June 18, 2014). http://blogs.hbr.org/2014/06/how-to-kill-quarterly-earnings-guidance/.
- June 2014
- Supplement
Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (B)
By: Mihir Desai and Elizabeth A. Meyer
This case is meant to accompany Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (A) and details the results of Apple's Q2 2013 earnings call.
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Keywords:
Apple;
Steve Jobs;
Forecast;
Forecasting;
Forecasting And Prediction;
Shareholder Activism;
Share Repurchase;
Dividends;
Financial Ratios;
Preferred Shares;
Cash Distribution;
Corporate Finance;
Borrowing and Debt;
Financial Management;
Financial Strategy;
Technology Industry;
Consumer Products Industry;
United States;
Republic of Ireland
Desai, Mihir, and Elizabeth A. Meyer. "Financial Policy at Apple, 2013 (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 214-094, June 2014.
- June 2013 (Revised September 2015)
- Case
Procter & Gamble
By: Jay W. Lorsch and Kathleen Durante
On July 12, 2012, Bill Ackman's Pershing Square Capital Management announced publicly that it had purchased about $2 billion of Procter and Gamble (P&G) stock. Shares in the company closed up 3.75% the day the disclosure was made public. Ackman told the New York... View Details
Keywords:
Ackman;
P&G;
Pershing Square Capital Managment;
Disruption;
Management Succession;
Crisis Management;
Acquisition;
Consumer Products Industry;
Financial Services Industry
Lorsch, Jay W., and Kathleen Durante. "Procter & Gamble." Harvard Business School Case 413-127, June 2013. (Revised September 2015.)
- 2013
- Article
Boardroom Centrality and Firm Performance
By: David F. Larcker, Eric C. So and Charles C.Y. Wang
Firms with central or well-connected boards of directors earn superior risk-adjusted stock returns. Initiating a long position in the most central firms and a short position in the least central firms earns an average risk-adjusted return of 4.68% per year. Firms with...
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Larcker, David F., Eric C. So, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Boardroom Centrality and Firm Performance." Journal of Accounting & Economics 55, nos. 2-3 (April–May 2013): 225–250.
- March 2013
- Article
Misvaluing Innovation
By: Lauren Cohen, Karl Diether and Christopher Malloy
We demonstrate that a firm's ability to innovate is predictable, persistent, and relatively simple to compute, and yet the stock market ignores the implications of past successes when valuing future innovation. We show that two firms that invest the exact same in...
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Keywords:
Innovation;
Return Predictability;
R&D;
Information;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Research and Development;
Innovation and Invention
Cohen, Lauren, Karl Diether, and Christopher Malloy. "Misvaluing Innovation." Review of Financial Studies 26, no. 3 (March 2013): 635–666.
- June 2012
- Article
Decoding Inside Information
By: Lauren Cohen, Christopher Malloy and Lukasz Pomorski
Using a simple empirical strategy, we decode the information in insider trading. Exploiting the fact that insiders trade for a variety of reasons, we show that there is predictable, identifiable "routine" insider trading that is not informative for the future of firms....
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Keywords:
Strategy;
Financial Markets;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Law Enforcement;
Opportunities;
Geographic Location;
Business Earnings
Cohen, Lauren, Christopher Malloy, and Lukasz Pomorski. "Decoding Inside Information." Journal of Finance 67, no. 3 (June 2012): 1009–1043. (Winner of Chicago Quantitative Alliance Academic Paper Competition. First Prize presented by Chicago Quantitative Alliance. Winner of Institute for Quantitative Investment Research (INQUIRE) Grant presented by Institute for Quantitative Investment Research.)
- Spring 2013
- Article
Does Mandatory IFRS Adoption Improve the Information Environment?
By: Joanne Horton, George Serafeim and Ioanna Serafeim
We examine the effect of mandatory International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adoption on firms' information environment. We find that after mandatory IFRS adoption, consensus forecast errors decrease for firms that mandatorily adopt IFRS relative to forecast...
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Keywords:
International Accounting;
Financial Reporting;
Standards;
Information;
Quality;
Earnings Management
Horton, Joanne, George Serafeim, and Ioanna Serafeim. "Does Mandatory IFRS Adoption Improve the Information Environment?" Contemporary Accounting Research 30, no. 1 (Spring 2013): 388–423.
- December 2012
- Case
Coca-Cola: Residual Income Valuation
By: Suraj Srinivasan, Beiting Cheng and Edward J. Riedl
The case illustrates the use of the residual income (also known as the abnormal earnings) valuation approach. Students are asked to provide a valuation of Coca-Cola Company using the residual income valuation methodology and understand how it maps into the discounted...
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Srinivasan, Suraj, Beiting Cheng, and Edward J. Riedl. "Coca-Cola: Residual Income Valuation." Harvard Business School Case 113-056, December 2012.
- 2011
- Chapter
The Analyst Recommendation and Earnings Forecast Anomaly
By: George Serafeim
Serafeim, George. "The Analyst Recommendation and Earnings Forecast Anomaly." Chap. 3 in The Handbook of Equity Market Anomalies: Translating Market Inefficiencies into Effective Investment Strategies, edited by Len Zacks, 63–91. John Wiley & Sons, 2011.
- March 2011
- Article
Do Sell-Side Stock Analysts Exhibit Escalation of Commitment?
By: John Beshears and Katherine L. Milkman
This paper presents evidence that when an analyst makes an out-of-consensus forecast of a company's quarterly earnings that turns out to be incorrect, she escalates her commitment to maintaining an out-of-consensus view on the company. Relative to an analyst who was...
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Keywords:
Escalation Of Commitment;
Stock Market;
Updating;
Behavioral Economics;
Motivation and Incentives;
Behavior;
Consumer Behavior;
Financial Markets;
Forecasting and Prediction
Beshears, John, and Katherine L. Milkman. "Do Sell-Side Stock Analysts Exhibit Escalation of Commitment?" Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 77, no. 3 (March 2011): 304–317.
- September 2011
- Article
What Drives Sell-Side Analyst Compensation at High-Status Investment Banks?
By: Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy and David A. Maber
We use proprietary data from a major investment bank to investigate factors associated with analysts' annual compensation. We find compensation to be positively related to "All-Star" recognition, investment-banking contributions, the size of analysts' portfolios, and...
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Keywords:
Investment Banking;
Research;
Compensation and Benefits;
Investment Portfolio;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Resource Allocation;
Status and Position;
Business Earnings;
Quality;
Revenue;
Stocks;
Voting
Groysberg, Boris, Paul M. Healy, and David A. Maber. "What Drives Sell-Side Analyst Compensation at High-Status Investment Banks?" Journal of Accounting Research 49, no. 4 (September 2011): 969–1000.
- 2010
- Working Paper
When Do Analysts Add Value? Evidence from Corporate Spinoffs
By: Emilie Rose Feldman, Stuart Gilson and Belen Villalonga
We investigate the information content and forecast accuracy of 1,793 analyst reports written around 62 spinoffs—a setting in which analysts' ability to inform investors is potentially very high. We find that analysts pay little attention to subsidiaries about to be...
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Keywords:
Earnings Management;
Mergers and Acquisitions;
Business Subsidiaries;
Restructuring;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Insolvency and Bankruptcy;
Initial Public Offering;
Price;
Reports;
Research
Feldman, Emilie Rose, Stuart Gilson, and Belen Villalonga. "When Do Analysts Add Value? Evidence from Corporate Spinoffs." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 10-102, May 2010.
- April 2010 (Revised May 2017)
- Case
Tremblant Capital Group
By: Robin Greenwood
Brett Barakett, CEO and founder of Tremblant Capital Group, a New York–based hedge fund, must decide what to do with his fund's position in Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, which has dropped in value by more than 40% in recent months. Tremblant is a hedge fund that...
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Keywords:
Business Earnings;
Behavioral Finance;
Stocks;
Investment Funds;
Consumer Behavior;
Competitive Advantage;
Financial Services Industry;
New York (city, NY)
Greenwood, Robin. "Tremblant Capital Group." Harvard Business School Case 210-071, April 2010. (Revised May 2017.)
- Article
Can Mutual Fund Managers Pick Stocks? Evidence from Their Trades Prior to Earnings Announcements
By: Malcolm Baker, Lubomir Litov, Jessica Wachter and Jeffrey Wurgler
We consider measures of stock-picking skill of mutual fund managers based on the earnings announcement returns of the stocks that they hold and trade. Relative to standard approaches, this approach focuses on an especially informative subset of the returns data,...
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Baker, Malcolm, Lubomir Litov, Jessica Wachter, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "Can Mutual Fund Managers Pick Stocks? Evidence from Their Trades Prior to Earnings Announcements." Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 45, no. 5 (October 2010): 1111 –1131.
- November 2008
- Journal Article
Can Research Committees Add Value for Investors? An Analysis of Lehman Brothers' Ten Uncommon Values® Recommendations
By: Boris Groysberg, Paul M. Healy and Yang Gui
Since 1949 Lehman Brothers has used an investment committee to select the top ten recommendations made by its analysts each year. We examine the performance of this committee's recommendations and find that on average its selections generated abnormal returns of 2.7%...
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Keywords:
Forecasting and Prediction;
Stocks;
Financial Markets;
Investment;
Investment Return;
Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms;
Performance Expectations;
Groups and Teams;
Research;
Value Creation
Groysberg, Boris, Paul M. Healy, and Yang Gui. "Can Research Committees Add Value for Investors? An Analysis of Lehman Brothers' Ten Uncommon Values® Recommendations." Journal of Financial Transformation 24 (November 2008): 123–130.
- 2008
- Working Paper
CEO and CFO Career Penalties to Missing Quarterly Analysts Forecasts
By: Rick Mergenthaler, Shiva Rajgopal and Suraj Srinivasan
We find that missing the quarterly analyst consensus earnings forecast is associated with career penalties in the form of a reduced bonus, smaller equity grants, and a greater chance of forced dismissal for both CEOs and CFOs during the period 1993-2004. These results...
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Keywords:
Earnings Management;
Governing and Advisory Boards;
Compensation and Benefits;
Managerial Roles;
Personal Development and Career
Mergenthaler, Rick, Shiva Rajgopal, and Suraj Srinivasan. "CEO and CFO Career Penalties to Missing Quarterly Analysts Forecasts." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 09-014, August 2008. (Revised June 2009.)