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      • Faculty Publications  (509)

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      • February 2023
      • Supplement

      Coats Dyehouse Management

      By: Willy C. Shih
      Coats, the largest thread maker in the world, transformed its business to digital colour measurement so that it could respond better to customer demand in the garment industry for rapid product cycles and more fragmented colour choices. Its embrace of digital colour...  View Details
      Keywords: Inventory Management; Supply Chain; Inventory; Supply Chain Management; Operations; Apparel and Accessories Industry; Asia
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      Shih, Willy C. "Coats Dyehouse Management." Harvard Business School Multimedia/Video Supplement 622-703, February 2023.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Human-Computer Interactions in Demand Forecasting and Labor Scheduling Decisions

      By: Caleb Kwon, Ananth Raman and Jorge Tamayo
      We empirically analyze how managerial overrides to a commercial algorithm that forecasts demand and schedules labor affect store performance. We analyze administrative data from a large grocery retailer that utilizes a commercial algorithm to forecast demand and...  View Details
      Keywords: Employees; Human Capital; Performance; Applications and Software; Management Skills; Management Practices and Processes; Retail Industry
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      Kwon, Caleb, Ananth Raman, and Jorge Tamayo. "Human-Computer Interactions in Demand Forecasting and Labor Scheduling Decisions." Working Paper, December 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Improving Human-Algorithm Collaboration: Causes and Mitigation of Over- and Under-Adherence

      By: Maya Balakrishnan, Kris Ferreira and Jordan Tong
      Even if algorithms make better predictions than humans on average, humans may sometimes have “private” information which an algorithm does not have access to that can improve performance. How can we help humans effectively use and adjust recommendations made by...  View Details
      Keywords: Cognitive Biases; Algorithm Transparency; Forecasting and Prediction; Behavior; AI and Machine Learning; Analytics and Data Science; Cognition and Thinking
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      Balakrishnan, Maya, Kris Ferreira, and Jordan Tong. "Improving Human-Algorithm Collaboration: Causes and Mitigation of Over- and Under-Adherence." Working Paper, December 2022.
      • Article

      Innovations in Retail Operations: Thirty Years of Lessons from Production and Operations Management

      By: Marshall Fisher and Ananth Raman
      We review papers published in Production and Operations Management (POM) during its thirty-year history that deal with retail operations issues with an empirical approach. The papers span a range of issues, from traditional ones like forecasting and inventory...  View Details
      Keywords: RFID; Innovation and Invention; Technology Adoption; Operations; E-commerce; Strategy; Retail Industry
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      Fisher, Marshall, and Ananth Raman. "Innovations in Retail Operations: Thirty Years of Lessons from Production and Operations Management." Special Issue on The 30th Anniversary Issue of Production and Operations Management edited by Subodha Kumar and Christopher S. Tang. Production and Operations Management 31, no. 12 (December 1, 2022): 4452–4461.
      • October–December 2022
      • Article

      Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem

      By: Mochen Yang, Edward McFowland III, Gordon Burtch and Gediminas Adomavicius
      Combining machine learning with econometric analysis is becoming increasingly prevalent in both research and practice. A common empirical strategy involves the application of predictive modeling techniques to "mine" variables of interest from available data, followed...  View Details
      Keywords: Machine Learning; Econometric Analysis; Instrumental Variable; Random Forest; Causal Inference; AI and Machine Learning; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Yang, Mochen, Edward McFowland III, Gordon Burtch, and Gediminas Adomavicius. "Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem." INFORMS Journal on Data Science 1, no. 2 (October–December 2022): 138–155.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Perceptions about Monetary Policy

      By: Michael D. Bauer, Carolin Pflueger and Adi Sunderam
      We estimate perceptions about the Fed's monetary policy rule from micro data on professional forecasters. The perceived rule varies significantly over time, with important consequences for monetary policy and bond markets. Over the monetary policy cycle, easings are...  View Details
      Keywords: Monetary Policy; Central Banking; Forecasting and Prediction; Policy; Interest Rates
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      Bauer, Michael D., Carolin Pflueger, and Adi Sunderam. "Perceptions about Monetary Policy." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30480, September 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      The Effect of Employee Lateness and Absenteeism on Store Performance

      By: Caleb Kwon and Ananth Raman
      We empirically analyze the effects of employee lateness and absenteeism on store performance by examining 25.5 million employee shift timecards covering more than 100,000 employees across more than 500 U.S. retail grocery store locations over a four year time period....  View Details
      Keywords: Absenteeism; Lateness; Scheduling; Performance Productivity; Employees; Retail Industry
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      Kwon, Caleb, and Ananth Raman. "The Effect of Employee Lateness and Absenteeism on Store Performance." Working Paper, August 2022.
      • Winter 2022
      • Article

      Determinants of Small Business Reopening Decisions After COVID Restrictions Were Lifted

      By: Dylan Balla-Elliott, Zoë B. Cullen, Edward L. Glaeser, Michael Luca and Christopher Stanton
      The COVID-19 pandemic led to dramatic economic disruptions, including government-imposed restrictions that temporarily shuttered millions of American businesses. We use a nation-wide survey of thousands of small business owners to establish three main facts about...  View Details
      Keywords: COVID-19; Demand Forecasting; Reopening; Health Pandemics; Government Administration; Small Business
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      Balla-Elliott, Dylan, Zoë B. Cullen, Edward L. Glaeser, Michael Luca, and Christopher Stanton. "Determinants of Small Business Reopening Decisions After COVID Restrictions Were Lifted." Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 41, no. 1 (Winter 2022): 278–317.
      • May 2022
      • Supplement

      Maestro Pizza (B): The Competition Awakens

      By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell and Fares Khrais
      Maestro pizza opened its first store in 2013 after its founder, Khalid Al Omran, recognized an opportunity in Saudi Arabia to offer high quality pizza at affordable prices. The business grew rapidly and under the radar at first, but soon enough caught the attention of...  View Details
      Keywords: Competitive Strategy; Competitive Advantage; Competition; Market Entry and Exit; Emerging Markets; Business Startups; Corporate Entrepreneurship; Product Positioning; Disruption; Disruptive Innovation; Advertising; Advertising Campaigns; Social Media; Forecasting and Prediction; Crisis Management; Growth and Development Strategy; Brands and Branding; Product Development; Production; Service Delivery; Business Growth and Maturation; Financial Statements; Cost Management; Analysis; Quality; Performance Consistency; Customer Satisfaction; Profit; Family Ownership; Food and Beverage Industry; Saudi Arabia; Middle East
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      Casadesus-Masanell, Ramon, and Fares Khrais. "Maestro Pizza (B): The Competition Awakens." Harvard Business School Supplement 722-400, May 2022.
      • May 2022
      • Supplement

      Maestro Pizza (C): Taking the Fight Outside

      By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell and Fares Khrais
      Maestro pizza opened its first store in 2013 after its founder, Khalid Al Omran, recognized an opportunity in Saudi Arabia to offer high quality pizza at affordable prices. The business grew rapidly and under the radar at first, but soon enough caught the attention of...  View Details
      Keywords: Competitive Strategy; Competitive Advantage; Competition; Market Entry and Exit; Emerging Markets; Business Startups; Corporate Entrepreneurship; Product Positioning; Disruption; Disruptive Innovation; Advertising; Advertising Campaigns; Social Media; Forecasting and Prediction; Crisis Management; Growth and Development Strategy; Brands and Branding; Product Development; Production; Service Delivery; Business Growth and Maturation; Financial Statements; Cost Management; Analysis; Quality; Performance Consistency; Customer Satisfaction; Profit; Family Ownership; Food and Beverage Industry; Middle East; Saudi Arabia
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      Casadesus-Masanell, Ramon, and Fares Khrais. "Maestro Pizza (C): Taking the Fight Outside." Harvard Business School Supplement 722-401, May 2022.
      • May 2022
      • Case

      Maestro Pizza: Coming in Hot!

      By: Ramon Casadesus-Masanell and Fares Khrais
      Maestro Pizza opened its first store in 2013 after its founder, Khalid Al Omran, recognized an opportunity in Saudi Arabia to offer high quality pizza at affordable prices. The business grew rapidly and under the radar at first, but soon enough caught the attention of...  View Details
      Keywords: Competitive Strategy; Competitive Advantage; Competition; Market Entry and Exit; Emerging Markets; Business Startups; Corporate Entrepreneurship; Product Positioning; Disruption; Disruptive Innovation; Advertising; Advertising Campaigns; Social Media; Forecasting and Prediction; Crisis Management; Growth and Development Strategy; Brands and Branding; Product Development; Production; Service Delivery; Business Growth and Maturation; Financial Statements; Cost Management; Analysis; Quality; Performance Consistency; Customer Satisfaction; Profit; Family Ownership; Food and Beverage Industry; Middle East; Saudi Arabia
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      Casadesus-Masanell, Ramon, and Fares Khrais. "Maestro Pizza: Coming in Hot!" Harvard Business School Case 722-399, May 2022.
      • April 2022
      • Article

      Predictable Financial Crises

      By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer and Jakob Ahm Sørensen
      Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is...  View Details
      Keywords: Financial Crisis; Global Range; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods
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      Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer, and Jakob Ahm Sørensen. "Predictable Financial Crises." Journal of Finance 77, no. 2 (April 2022): 863–921.
      • March 2022
      • Case

      Auto Mag (Abridged)

      By: David E. Bell
      A young HBS graduate purchases a publisher of specialty magazines that advertises second hand cars, boats, trucks, etc. The magazines carry photographs and a brief description of each article for sale. The company faces the problem of deciding on how many magazines to...  View Details
      Keywords: Distribution; Cost Management; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Bell, David E. "Auto Mag (Abridged)." Harvard Business School Case 122-096, March 2022.
      • March 2022 (Revised May 2022)
      • Case

      Winning Business at Russell Reynolds (A)

      By: Ethan Bernstein and Cara Mazzucco
      In an effort to make compensation drive collaboration, Russell Reynolds Associates’ (RRA) CEO Clarke Murphy sought to re-engineer the bonus system for his executive search consultants in 2016. As his HR analytics guru, Kelly Smith, points out, that risks upsetting–and...  View Details
      Keywords: Compensation; Collaboration; Executive Search Firms; Consulting Firms; Compensation and Benefits; Restructuring; Human Resources; Human Capital; Management Practices and Processes; Organizational Culture; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Social and Collaborative Networks; Recruitment; Selection and Staffing; Talent and Talent Management; Consulting Industry; Employment Industry; Asia; Europe; Latin America; Middle East; North and Central America; South America; Oceania
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      Bernstein, Ethan, and Cara Mazzucco. "Winning Business at Russell Reynolds (A)." Harvard Business School Case 422-045, March 2022. (Revised May 2022.)
      • March 2022
      • Supplement

      Winning Business at Russell Reynolds (B)

      By: Ethan Bernstein and Cara Mazzucco
      In an effort to make compensation drive collaboration, Russell Reynolds Associates’ (RRA) CEO Clarke Murphy sought to re-engineer the bonus system for his executive search consultants in 2016. As his HR analytics guru, Kelly Smith, points out, that risks upsetting–and...  View Details
      Keywords: Compensation; Collaboration; Executive Search Firms; Consulting Firms; Compensation and Benefits; Restructuring; Human Resources; Human Capital; Management Practices and Processes; Organizational Culture; Organizational Change and Adaptation; Social and Collaborative Networks; Recruitment; Selection and Staffing; Talent and Talent Management; Consulting Industry; Employment Industry; Asia; Europe; Latin America; Middle East; North and Central America; South America; Oceania
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      Bernstein, Ethan, and Cara Mazzucco. "Winning Business at Russell Reynolds (B)." Harvard Business School Supplement 422-046, March 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Investing in the Next Generation: The Long-Run Impacts of a Liquidity Shock

      By: Patrick Agte, Arielle Bernhardt, Erica M. Field, Rohini Pande and Natalia Rigol
      How do poor entrepreneurs trade off investments in business enterprises versus children's human capital, and how do these choices influence intergenerational socio-economic mobility? To examine this, we exploit experimental variation in household income resulting from...  View Details
      Keywords: Socio-economic Mobility; Household; Financial Liquidity; Human Capital; Investment; Education
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      Agte, Patrick, Arielle Bernhardt, Erica M. Field, Rohini Pande, and Natalia Rigol. "Investing in the Next Generation: The Long-Run Impacts of a Liquidity Shock." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 29816, March 2022.
      • February 2022 (Revised September 2022)
      • Case

      Lilium: Preparing for Takeoff

      By: Navid Mojir, Vincent Dessain, Mette Fuglsang Hjortshoej and Emer Moloney
      Lilium is a German company focused on developing electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles (eVTOLs) that can be used to offer air taxi services. The company went public in September 2021 through a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) deal, raising more than...  View Details
      Keywords: SPACs; Business Model; Forecasting and Prediction; Green Technology; Capital Markets; Venture Capital; Initial Public Offering; Rural Scope; Urban Scope; City; Disruptive Innovation; Growth and Development Strategy; Technological Innovation; Demand and Consumers; Market Timing; Industry Growth; Infrastructure; Logistics; Product Design; Product Development; Production; Service Delivery; Service Operations; Strategic Planning; Partners and Partnerships; Risk and Uncertainty; Urban Development; Sustainable Cities; Business Strategy; Competitive Strategy; Competitive Advantage; Air Transportation; Aerospace Industry; Air Transportation Industry; Green Technology Industry; Transportation Industry; Travel Industry; Germany; Munich; Brazil; United States; Florida
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      Mojir, Navid, Vincent Dessain, Mette Fuglsang Hjortshoej, and Emer Moloney. "Lilium: Preparing for Takeoff." Harvard Business School Case 522-084, February 2022. (Revised September 2022.)
      • February 2022
      • Teaching Note

      Borusan CAT: Monetizing Prediction in the Age of AI

      By: Navid Mojir
      Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 521-053.  View Details
      Keywords: Monetization Strategy; Artificial Intelligence; Forecasting and Prediction; Applications and Software; Technological Innovation; Marketing; Segmentation; AI and Machine Learning; Construction Industry; Turkey
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      Mojir, Navid. "Borusan CAT: Monetizing Prediction in the Age of AI." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 522-069, February 2022.
      • January 2022 (Revised March 2022)
      • Case

      ReNew Power: Leading the Energy Transition in India

      By: Gunnar Trumbull and Malini Sen
      Founder-CEO of one of India’s largest clean energy companies, ReNew Power, which develops, builds, and operates utility-scale wind and solar energy projects, has to decide the way forward for the company as the country and the world stand poised at the cusp of an...  View Details
      Keywords: Energy Generation; Renewable Energy; Energy Sources; Entrepreneurship; Private Equity; Initial Public Offering; Forecasting and Prediction; Trends; Transformation; Private Ownership; Environmental Sustainability; Energy Industry; India; Asia
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      Trumbull, Gunnar, and Malini Sen. "ReNew Power: Leading the Energy Transition in India." Harvard Business School Case 722-028, January 2022. (Revised March 2022.)
      • January 2022
      • Technical Note

      Introduction to Capital Structure Analytics

      By: Samuel Antill and Ted Berk
      This technical note provides an overview of key analytical approaches that are useful in assessing the appropriateness of a firm’s capital structure and funding plan. This note introduces basic quantitative tools and metrics that are commonly used as inputs to this...  View Details
      Keywords: Budgets and Budgeting; Business Plan; Forecasting and Prediction; Borrowing and Debt; Corporate Finance; Capital Structure; Cash Flow; Financial Liquidity; Financial Management; Financing and Loans
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      Antill, Samuel, and Ted Berk. "Introduction to Capital Structure Analytics." Harvard Business School Technical Note 222-061, January 2022.
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