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- Faculty Publications (325)
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- All HBS Web (987)
- Faculty Publications (325)
- January 2008 (Revised July 2009)
- Case
Forecasting the Great Depression
What is proper role of professional economic forecasting in financial decision making? The case presents excerpts from three leading economic forecasters on the eve of, and just after, the stock market crash of October 1929. The first set of excerpts is from Roger...
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Keywords:
History;
Mathematical Methods;
Personal Development and Career;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Financial Crisis
Friedman, Walter A. "Forecasting the Great Depression." Harvard Business School Case 708-046, January 2008. (Revised July 2009.)
- 2006
- Working Paper
The Effect of Dividends on Consumption
By: Malcolm Baker, Stefan Nagel and Jeffrey Wurgler
Classical models predict that the division of stock returns into dividends and capital appreciation does not affect investor consumption patterns, while mental accounting and other economic frictions predict that investors have a higher propensity to consume from stock...
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Baker, Malcolm, Stefan Nagel, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "The Effect of Dividends on Consumption." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 12288, June 2006. (First Draft in 2005.)
- September 2010
- Article
Do Inventory and Gross Margin Data Improve Sales Forecasts for U.S. Public Retailers?
By: Saravanan Kesavan, Vishal Gaur and Ananth Raman
Firm-level sales forecasts for retailers can be improved if we incorporate cost of goods sold, inventory, and gross margin (defined here as the ratio of sales to cost of goods sold) as three endogenous variables. We construct a simultaneous equations model, estimated...
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Keywords:
Sales;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Distribution;
Goods and Commodities;
Cost;
Public Sector;
Profit;
Mathematical Methods;
Data and Data Sets;
Retail Industry;
United States
Kesavan, Saravanan, Vishal Gaur, and Ananth Raman. "Do Inventory and Gross Margin Data Improve Sales Forecasts for U.S. Public Retailers?" Management Science 56, no. 9 (September 2010).
- Article
The Effect of Dividends on Consumption
By: Malcolm Baker, Stefan Nagel and Jeffrey Wurgler
Classical models predict that the division of stock returns into dividends and capital appreciation does not affect investor consumption patterns, while mental accounting and other economic frictions predict that investors have a higher propensity to consume from...
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Keywords:
Investment;
Investment Return;
Economics;
Stocks;
Capital;
Business Earnings;
Investment Portfolio;
Investment Funds;
Cost;
Saving
Baker, Malcolm, Stefan Nagel, and Jeffrey Wurgler. "The Effect of Dividends on Consumption." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, no. 1 (2007): 277–291.
- 2023
- Article
Verifiable Feature Attributions: A Bridge between Post Hoc Explainability and Inherent Interpretability
By: Usha Bhalla, Suraj Srinivas and Himabindu Lakkaraju
With the increased deployment of machine learning models in various real-world applications, researchers and practitioners alike have emphasized the need for explanations of model behaviour. To this end, two broad strategies have been outlined in prior literature to...
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Bhalla, Usha, Suraj Srinivas, and Himabindu Lakkaraju. "Verifiable Feature Attributions: A Bridge between Post Hoc Explainability and Inherent Interpretability." Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems (NeurIPS) (2023).
- 2021
- Working Paper
An Empirical Study of Time Allotment and Delays in E-commerce Delivery
By: M. Balakrishnan, MoonSoo Choi and Natalie Epstein
Problem definition: We study how having more time allotted to deliver an order affects the speed of the delivery process. Furthermore, we seek to predict orders that are likely to be delayed early in the delivery process so that actions can be taken to avoid delays....
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Keywords:
Logistics;
E-commerce;
Mathematical Methods;
AI and Machine Learning;
Performance Productivity
Balakrishnan, M., MoonSoo Choi, and Natalie Epstein. "An Empirical Study of Time Allotment and Delays in E-commerce Delivery." Working Paper, December 2021.
- Working Paper
An AI Method to Score Celebrity Visual Potential from Human Faces
By: Flora Feng, Shunyuan Zhang, Xiao Liu, Kannan Srinivasan and Cait Lamberton
Celebrities have extraordinary abilities to attract and influence others. Predicting celebrity visual potential is important in the domains of business, politics, media, and entertainment. Can we use human faces to predict celebrity visual potential? If so, which...
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Feng, Flora, Shunyuan Zhang, Xiao Liu, Kannan Srinivasan, and Cait Lamberton. "An AI Method to Score Celebrity Visual Potential from Human Faces." SSRN Working Paper Series, No. 4071188, November 2023.
- 2017
- Working Paper
Management as a Technology?
By: Nicholas Bloom, Raffaella Sadun and John Van Reenen
Are some management practices akin to a technology that can explain firm and national productivity, or do they simply reflect contingent management styles? We collect data on core management practices from over 11,000 firms in 34 countries. We find large cross-country...
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Keywords:
Management Practices;
Productivity;
Competition;
Management Practices and Processes;
Performance Productivity
Bloom, Nicholas, Raffaella Sadun, and John Van Reenen. "Management as a Technology?" Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-133, June 2016. (Revised October 2017.)
- 2014
- Working Paper
Bio-Piracy or Prospering Together? Fuzzy Set and Qualitative Analysis of Herbal Patenting by Firms
By: Prithwiraj Choudhury and Tarun Khanna
Since the 1990s, several Western firms have filed patents based on medicinal herbs from emerging markets, evoking protests from local stakeholders against 'bio-piracy'. We explore conditions under which firms and local stakeholders share rents from such patents. Our...
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Keywords:
Rents From New Technology;
Local Stakeholders;
Herbal Patents;
QCA;
Fuzzy Set Analysis;
Qualitative Case Studies;
Plant-Based Agribusiness;
Patents;
Emerging Markets;
Health Care and Treatment;
Business and Stakeholder Relations;
Cross-Cultural and Cross-Border Issues;
Agriculture and Agribusiness Industry;
Pharmaceutical Industry
Choudhury, Prithwiraj, and Tarun Khanna. "Bio-Piracy or Prospering Together? Fuzzy Set and Qualitative Analysis of Herbal Patenting by Firms." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 14-081, February 2014.
- Research Summary
Overview
Everett is currently engaged in the following research projects:
- Are the Best Junior Officers Getting Out of the US Army? (ongoing)
- What Predicts Success at the United States Military Academy Preparatory School? (ongoing)
- Follow the Leader- What Is the Effect...
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- December 2010
- Article
Altruistic Dynamic Pricing with Customer Regret
By: Julio J. Rotemberg
A model is considered where firms internalize the regret costs that consumers experience when they see an unexpected price change. Regret costs are assumed to be increasing in the size of price changes and this can explain why the size of price increases is less...
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Keywords:
Cost;
Price;
Change;
Inflation and Deflation;
Cost Management;
Customers;
Practice;
Announcements;
Forecasting and Prediction
Rotemberg, Julio J. "Altruistic Dynamic Pricing with Customer Regret." Scandinavian Journal of Economics 112, no. 4 (December 2010).
- 2004
- Working Paper
Thinking About Technology: Applying a Cognitive Lens to Technical Change
We apply a cognitive lens to understanding technology trajectories across the life cycle by developing a coevolutionary model of technological frames and technology. Applying that model to each stage of the technology life cycle, we identify conditions under which a...
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Kaplan, Sarah, and Mary Tripsas. "Thinking About Technology: Applying a Cognitive Lens to Technical Change." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 04-039, January 2004. (Revised September 2006, August 2007, April 2008.)
- 2023
- Working Paper
The Customer Journey as a Source of Information
By: Nicolas Padilla, Eva Ascarza and Oded Netzer
In the face of heightened data privacy concerns and diminishing third-party data access,
firms are placing increased emphasis on first-party data (1PD) for marketing decisions.
However, in environments with infrequent purchases, reliance on past purchases 1PD...
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Keywords:
Customer Journey;
Privacy;
Consumer Behavior;
Analytics and Data Science;
AI and Machine Learning;
Customer Focus and Relationships
Padilla, Nicolas, Eva Ascarza, and Oded Netzer. "The Customer Journey as a Source of Information." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 24-035, October 2023. (Revised October 2023.)
- 2010
- Working Paper
Substitution Patterns of the Random Coefficients Logit
By: Thomas J. Steenburgh and Andrew Ainslie
Previous research suggests that the random coefficients logit is a highly flexible model that overcomes the problems of the homogeneous logit by allowing for differences in tastes across individuals. The purpose of this paper is to show that this is not true. We prove...
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Steenburgh, Thomas J., and Andrew Ainslie. "Substitution Patterns of the Random Coefficients Logit." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 10-053, January 2010.
- 1998
- Article
Looking Inside the Fishbowl of Creativity: Verbal and Behavioral Predictors of Creative Performance
By: J. Ruscio, D. M. Whitney and T. M. Amabile
This study set out to identify specific task behaviors that predict observable product creativity in three domains and to identify which of those behaviors mediate the well-established link between intrinsic motivation and creativity. One-hundred fifty-one...
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Ruscio, J., D. M. Whitney, and T. M. Amabile. "Looking Inside the Fishbowl of Creativity: Verbal and Behavioral Predictors of Creative Performance." Creativity Research Journal 11, no. 3 (1998): 243–263.
- June 2014
- Article
Charitable Giving When Altruism and Similarity Are Linked
By: Julio J. Rotemberg
This paper presents a model in which anonymous charitable donations are rationalized by two human tendencies drawn from the psychology literature. The first is people's disproportionate disposition to help those they agree with, while the second is the dependence of...
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Rotemberg, Julio J. "Charitable Giving When Altruism and Similarity Are Linked." Journal of Public Economics 114 (June 2014): 36–49.
- July 1999
- Article
Analysts' Forecast Accuracy: Do Ability and Portfolio Complexity Matter
By: Michael B. Clement
Prior studies have identified systematic and time persistent differences in analysts’ earnings forecast accuracy, but have not explained why the differences exist. Using the I/B/E/S Detail History database, this study finds that forecast accuracy is positively...
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Clement, Michael B. "Analysts' Forecast Accuracy: Do Ability and Portfolio Complexity Matter." Journal of Accounting & Economics 27, no. 3 (July 1999): 285–303.
Paul Hamilton
Paul studies the economic complements needed for firms to realize productivity gains from machine learning and artificial intelligence. These complements include data, human capital & skills, organizational processes, and business models.
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- 27 Jan 2010
- Working Paper Summaries
Labor Regulations and European Private Equity
Keywords:
by Ant Bozkaya & William R. Kerr
- April 2015
- Case
Carolinas HealthCare System: Consumer Analytics
By: John A. Quelch and Margaret L. Rodriguez
In 2014, Dr. Michael Dulin, chief clinical officer for analytics and outcomes research and head of the Dickson Advanced Analytics (DA2) group at Carolinas HealthCare System (CHS), successfully unified all analytics talent and resources into one group over a three year...
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Keywords:
Consumer Segmentation;
Big Data;
Management Information Systems;
Hospital Management;
Health Care and Treatment;
Marketing;
Segmentation;
Analytics and Data Science;
Information Management;
Information Technology;
Health;
Health Industry;
United States
Quelch, John A., and Margaret L. Rodriguez. "Carolinas HealthCare System: Consumer Analytics." Harvard Business School Case 515-060, April 2015.