Filter Results
:
(56)
Show Results For
- All HBS Web (56)
- Faculty Publications (30)
Show Results For
- All HBS Web (56)
- Faculty Publications (30)
- December 2007
- Article
The Roles of Task-Specific Experience and Innate Ability in Understanding Analyst Performance
By: Michael B. Clement, Lisa Koonce and Thomas Lopez
Considerable debate exists about what analyst experience measures and whether analysts learn from their experiences. Extant research has argued that once innate ability is considered, analysts’ general and firm-specific experiences are not relevant to understanding...
View Details
Keywords:
Experience and Expertise;
Learning;
Performance Evaluation;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Financial Services Industry
Clement, Michael B., Lisa Koonce, and Thomas Lopez. "The Roles of Task-Specific Experience and Innate Ability in Understanding Analyst Performance." Journal of Accounting & Economics 44, no. 3 (December 2007): 378–398.
- October 2018
- Article
The Operational Value of Social Media Information
By: Ruomeng Cui, Santiago Gallino, Antonio Moreno and Dennis J. Zhang
While the value of using social media information has been established in multiple business contexts, the field of operations and supply chain management have not yet explored the possibilities it offers in improving firms' operational decisions. This study attempts to...
View Details
Cui, Ruomeng, Santiago Gallino, Antonio Moreno, and Dennis J. Zhang. "The Operational Value of Social Media Information." Special Issue on Big Data in Supply Chain Management. Production and Operations Management 27, no. 10 (October 2018): 1749–1774.
- 24 Oct 2006
- First Look
First Look: October 24, 2006
Working PapersManaging Functional Biases in Organizational Forecasts: A Case Study of Consensus Forecasting in Supply Chain Planning Authors:Rogelio Oliva and Noel Watson Abstract To date, little research has been done on managing the...
View Details
Keywords:
Sean Silverthorne
- 2014
- Article
The Promise of Prediction Contests
By: Phillip E. Pfeifer, Yael Grushka-Cockayne and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl
This article examines the prediction contest as a vehicle for aggregating the opinions of a crowd of experts. After proposing a general definition distinguishing prediction contests from other mechanisms for harnessing the wisdom of crowds, we focus on...
View Details
Pfeifer, Phillip E., Yael Grushka-Cockayne, and Kenneth C. Lichtendahl. "The Promise of Prediction Contests." American Statistician 68, no. 4 (2014): 264–270.
- 2010
- Working Paper
When Do Analysts Add Value? Evidence from Corporate Spinoffs
By: Emilie Rose Feldman, Stuart Gilson and Belen Villalonga
We investigate the information content and forecast accuracy of 1,793 analyst reports written around 62 spinoffs—a setting in which analysts' ability to inform investors is potentially very high. We find that analysts pay little attention to subsidiaries about to be...
View Details
Keywords:
Earnings Management;
Mergers and Acquisitions;
Business Subsidiaries;
Restructuring;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Insolvency and Bankruptcy;
Initial Public Offering;
Price;
Reports;
Research
Feldman, Emilie Rose, Stuart Gilson, and Belen Villalonga. "When Do Analysts Add Value? Evidence from Corporate Spinoffs." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 10-102, May 2010.
- Article
Beacon and Warning: Sherman Kent, Scientific Hubris, and the CIA's Office of National Estimates
By: J. Peter Scoblic
Would-be forecasters have increasingly extolled the predictive potential of Big Data and artificial intelligence. This essay reviews the career of Sherman Kent, the Yale historian who directed the CIA’s Office of National Estimates from 1952 to 1967, with an eye toward...
View Details
Keywords:
National Security;
Analytics and Data Science;
Analysis;
Forecasting and Prediction;
History
Scoblic, J. Peter. "Beacon and Warning: Sherman Kent, Scientific Hubris, and the CIA's Office of National Estimates." Texas National Security Review 1, no. 4 (August 2018).
- Research Summary
Sell-Side Analysts and Corporate Spinoffs
This study investigates the information content and accuracy of analyst reports written about companies that are about to undertake equity spinoffs. This research is among the first to provide a detailed look at the extent to which analysts evaluate upcoming...
View Details
- Research Summary
Incorporating Price and Inventory Endogeneity in Firm-Level Sales Forecasting.
Forecasting firm-level sales is a key activity in top-down planning in most organizations. In the retailing industry, firms can use inventory and price to stimulate demand. Hence, standard time series methods for sales forecasting can be improved by incorporating...
View Details
- Teaching Interest
Overview
Paul is primarily interested in teaching data science to management students through the case method. This includes technical topics (programming and statistics) as well as higher-level management issues (digital transformation, data governance, etc.) As a research...
View Details
Keywords:
A/B Testing;
AI;
AI Algorithms;
AI Creativity;
Algorithm;
Algorithm Bias;
Algorithmic Bias;
Algorithmic Fairness;
Algorithms;
Analytics;
Application Program Interface;
Artificial Intelligence;
Causality;
Causal Inference;
Computing;
Computers;
Data Analysis;
Data Analytics;
Data Architecture;
Data As A Service;
Data Centers;
Data Governance;
Data Labeling;
Data Management;
Data Manipulation;
Data Mining;
Data Ownership;
Data Privacy;
Data Protection;
Data Science;
Data Science And Analytics Management;
Data Scientists;
Data Security;
Data Sharing;
Data Strategy;
Data Visualization;
Database;
Data-driven Decision-making;
Data-driven Management;
Data-driven Operations;
Datathon;
Economics Of AI;
Economics Of Innovation;
Economics Of Information System;
Economics Of Science;
Forecast;
Forecast Accuracy;
Forecasting;
Forecasting And Prediction;
Information Technology;
Machine Learning;
Machine Learning Models;
Prediction;
Prediction Error;
Predictive Analytics;
Predictive Models;
Analysis;
AI and Machine Learning;
Analytics and Data Science;
Applications and Software;
Digital Transformation;
Information Management;
Digital Strategy;
Technology Adoption
- 2016
- Working Paper
Private Networks of Managers and Financial Analysts and Their Externality on a Firm's Information Environment
By: Zengquan Li, T.J. Wong and Gwen Yu
When emerging market firms raise external capital, they face a tradeoff where greater transparency may lead to a lower cost of capital but at the cost of revealing proprietary information in their relational business practices. We find that firms overcome this...
View Details
Keywords:
Emerging Market;
Financial Analysts;
Information;
Emerging Markets;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Corporate Governance
Li, Zengquan, T.J. Wong, and Gwen Yu. "Private Networks of Managers and Financial Analysts and Their Externality on a Firm's Information Environment." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 16-135, June 2016. (Revised October 2016.)
- 21 Aug 2018
- First Look
New Research and Ideas, August 21, 2018
We implement a variety of machine learning methods to forecast daily sales. We find that using social media information results in statistically significant improvements in the out-of-sample accuracy of the...
View Details
Keywords:
Dina Gerdeman
- 2023
- Working Paper
The Limits of Algorithmic Measures of Race in Studies of Outcome Disparities
By: David S. Scharfstein and Sergey Chernenko
We show that the use of algorithms to predict race has significant limitations in measuring and understanding the sources of racial disparities in finance, economics, and other contexts. First, we derive theoretically the direction and magnitude of measurement bias in...
View Details
Keywords:
Racial Disparity;
Paycheck Protection Program;
Measurement Error;
AI and Machine Learning;
Race;
Measurement and Metrics;
Equality and Inequality;
Prejudice and Bias;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Outcome or Result
Scharfstein, David S., and Sergey Chernenko. "The Limits of Algorithmic Measures of Race in Studies of Outcome Disparities." Working Paper, April 2023.
- December 2021
- Article
Entrepreneurial Learning and Strategic Foresight
By: Aticus Peterson and Andy Wu
We study how learning by experience across projects affects an entrepreneur's strategic foresight. In a quantitative study of 314 entrepreneurs across 722 crowdfunded projects supplemented with a program of qualitative interviews, we counterintuitively find that...
View Details
Keywords:
Crowdfunding;
Experience;
Prediction;
Timeline;
Complexity;
Entrepreneurship;
Learning;
Experience and Expertise;
Forecasting and Prediction
Peterson, Aticus, and Andy Wu. "Entrepreneurial Learning and Strategic Foresight." Art. 1. Strategic Management Journal 42, no. 13 (December 2021): 2357–2388. (Lead article.)
- Web
Online Business Analytics Course | HBS Online
Unbiased Samples The Normal Distribution Confidence Intervals Amazon's Inventory Sampling Featured Exercises Calculate sample statistics and apply the properties of the normal distribution Calculate confidence intervals to estimate the View Details
- 01 Dec 2023
- News
Thinking Ahead
20-person team when your venture is pre-revenue is not impressive; it could be worrisome.” While the forecast is far from sunny, entrepreneurs are still raising funds, Austin notes—and plenty is still possible with little to no financial...
View Details
- 03 Oct 2005
- Research & Ideas
The Box Office Power of Stars
relatively good forecasts of actual box office returns. In fact, the forecasting accuracy is what makes it such a valuable research setting. I used HSX to measure how the...
View Details
- 11 Apr 2024
- News
Mission Control
every single person on planet Earth. The data that we have today is impacting about a billion people by the accuracy of the weather forecast that they had. We have customers in 65 countries, but there are...
View Details
- 07 Aug 2000
- Research & Ideas
Rocket Science Retailing
Retailers can significantly improve forecast accuracy simply by updating their predictions based on early sales data, tracking the accuracy of their forecasts, getting product...
View Details
- 09 Jan 2014
- Research & Ideas
Excerpt: ’Fortune Tellers’
National Bureau of Economic Research) and popularize new statistical tools, like leading indicators and indexes of industrial production. On the other hand, though all forecasters dressed their predictions in the garb of rationality (with...
View Details
Keywords:
by Walter A. Friedman
- 18 Oct 2004
- Research & Ideas
The Bias of Wall Street Analysts
should be noted that the trick to measuring the analysts' optimism is to measure the signed accuracy of the forecasts. To do this, we calculate a forecast error of all analysts' forecasts. For example, for a...
View Details