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- April 2022
- Article
AI Insurance: How Liability Insurance Can Drive the Responsible Adoption of Artificial Intelligence in Health Care
By: Ariel Dora Stern, Avi Goldfarb and Timo Minssen
Despite enthusiasm about the potential to apply artificial intelligence (AI) to medicine and health care delivery, adoption remains tepid, even for the most compelling technologies. In this article, the authors focus on one set of challenges to AI adoption: those...
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Keywords:
Artificial Intelligence;
Medicine;
Health Care and Treatment;
Legal Liability;
Insurance;
Technology Adoption;
AI and Machine Learning
Stern, Ariel Dora, Avi Goldfarb, and Timo Minssen. "AI Insurance: How Liability Insurance Can Drive the Responsible Adoption of Artificial Intelligence in Health Care." NEJM Catalyst Innovations in Care Delivery 3, no. 4 (April 2022).
- April 2022
- Article
Predictable Financial Crises
Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is...
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Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer, and Jakob Ahm Sørensen. "Predictable Financial Crises." Journal of Finance 77, no. 2 (April 2022): 863–921.
- April 2022
- Article
The Past Is Prologue? Venture-Capital Syndicates' Collaborative Experience and Start-Up Exits
By: Dan Wang, Emily Cox Pahnke and Rory McDonald
Past research has produced contradictory insights into how prior collaboration between organizations—their relational embeddedness—impacts collective collaborative performance. We theorize that the effect of relational embeddedness on collaborative success is...
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Keywords:
Inter-organizational Networks;
Collaboration;
Entrepreneurship;
Networks;
Organizations;
Performance;
Venture Capital
Wang, Dan, Emily Cox Pahnke, and Rory McDonald. "The Past Is Prologue? Venture-Capital Syndicates' Collaborative Experience and Start-Up Exits." Academy of Management Journal 65, no. 2 (April 2022): 371–402.
- March 2022
- Case
Auto Mag (Abridged)
By: David E. Bell
A young HBS graduate purchases a publisher of specialty magazines that advertises second hand cars, boats, trucks, etc. The magazines carry photographs and a brief description of each article for sale. The company faces the problem of deciding on how many magazines to...
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Keywords:
Distribution;
Cost Management;
Decision Choices and Conditions;
Forecasting and Prediction
Bell, David E. "Auto Mag (Abridged)." Harvard Business School Case 122-096, March 2022.
- March 2022
- Module Note
Prediction & Machine Learning
By: Iavor I. Bojinov, Michael Parzen and Paul J. Hamilton
This note provides an introduction to machine learning for an introductory data science course. The note begins with a description of supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning. Then, the note provides a brief explanation of the difference between traditional...
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- Article
Eliminating Unintended Bias in Personalized Policies Using Bias-Eliminating Adapted Trees (BEAT)
By: Eva Ascarza and Ayelet Israeli
An inherent risk of algorithmic personalization is disproportionate targeting of individuals from certain groups (or demographic characteristics such as gender or race), even when the decision maker does not intend to discriminate based on those “protected”... View Details
Keywords:
Algorithm Bias;
Personalization;
Targeting;
Generalized Random Forests (GRF);
Discrimination;
Customization and Personalization;
Decision Making;
Fairness;
Mathematical Methods
Ascarza, Eva, and Ayelet Israeli. "Eliminating Unintended Bias in Personalized Policies Using Bias-Eliminating Adapted Trees (BEAT)." e2115126119. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119, no. 11 (March 8, 2022).
- Article
Expected Stock Returns Worldwide: A Log-Linear Present-Value Approach
By: Akash Chattopadhyay, Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
This study provides the first large-scale study of the performance of expected-return proxies (ERPs) internationally. Analyst-forecast-based ICCs are sparsely populated and not robustly associated with future returns. Earnings-model-forecast-based ICCs are...
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Keywords:
Expected Returns;
Discount Rates;
Fundamental Valuation;
Implied Cost Of Capital;
International Equity Markets;
Present Value;
Investment Return;
Equity;
Markets;
Global Range
Chattopadhyay, Akash, Matthew R. Lyle, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Expected Stock Returns Worldwide: A Log-Linear Present-Value Approach." Accounting Review 97, no. 2 (March 2022): 107–133.
- Article
From Immigrants to Americans: Race and Assimilation During the Great Migration
By: Vasiliki Fouka, Soumyajit Mazumder and Marco Tabellini
How does the arrival of a new minority group affect the social acceptance and outcomes of existing minorities? We study this question in the context of the First Great Migration. Between 1915 and 1930, 1.5 million African Americans moved from the U.S. South to Northern...
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Fouka, Vasiliki, Soumyajit Mazumder, and Marco Tabellini. "From Immigrants to Americans: Race and Assimilation During the Great Migration." Review of Economic Studies 89, no. 2 (March 2022): 811–842. (Also appears in VoxEU, The New York Times, Broadstreet, the Skepticast, and Oxford University Press Blog.)
- 2022
- Working Paper
Markups to Financial Intermediation in Foreign Exchange Markets
By: Jonathan Wallen
On average from 2013 to 2020, foreign asset managers in net sold forward 1.1 trillion U.S. dollars. This forward sale of dollars hedges the currency mismatch of foreign investment in U.S. dollar assets. By accommodating this demand, U.S. and European banks earn an...
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Keywords:
Foreign Exchange;
Financial Intermediation;
Arbitrage;
Market Power;
Regulations;
Currency;
Assets;
Interest Rates;
Banking Industry
Wallen, Jonathan. "Markups to Financial Intermediation in Foreign Exchange Markets." Working Paper, March 2022.
- March 2022
- Article
Targeting High Ability Entrepreneurs Using Community Information: Mechanism Design in the Field
Identifying high-growth microentrepreneurs in low-income countries remains a challenge due to a scarcity of verifiable information. With a cash grant experiment in India we demonstrate that community knowledge can help target high-growth microentrepreneurs; while the...
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Keywords:
Microentrepreneurs;
Community Information;
Field Experiment;
Loans;
Entrepreneurship;
Developing Countries and Economies;
Financing and Loans;
Information;
Mathematical Methods;
India
Hussam, Reshmaan, Natalia Rigol, and Benjamin N. Roth. "Targeting High Ability Entrepreneurs Using Community Information: Mechanism Design in the Field." American Economic Review 112, no. 3 (March 2022): 861–898.
- February 2022
- Case
Lilium: Preparing for Takeoff
By: Navid Mojir, Vincent Dessain, Mette Fuglsang Hjortshoej and Emer Moloney
Lilium is a German company focused on developing electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles (eVTOLs) that can be used to offer air taxi services. The company went public in September 2021 through a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) deal, raising more than...
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Keywords:
SPACs;
Business Model;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Green Technology;
Capital Markets;
Venture Capital;
Initial Public Offering;
Rural Scope;
Urban Scope;
City;
Disruptive Innovation;
Growth and Development Strategy;
Technological Innovation;
Demand and Consumers;
Market Timing;
Industry Growth;
Infrastructure;
Logistics;
Product Design;
Product Development;
Production;
Service Delivery;
Service Operations;
Strategic Planning;
Partners and Partnerships;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Urban Development;
Sustainable Cities;
Business Strategy;
Competitive Strategy;
Competitive Advantage;
Air Transportation;
Aerospace Industry;
Air Transportation Industry;
Green Technology Industry;
Transportation Industry;
Travel Industry;
Germany;
Munich;
Brazil;
United States;
Florida
- 2022
- Working Paper
Gone with the Big Data: Institutional Lender Demand for Private Information
By: Jung Koo Kang
I explore whether the value of borrowers’ private information is an important determinant of institutional lender participation in syndicated loans. Institutional lenders have been shown to exploit their access to borrowers’ private information by trading on it in...
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Kang, Jung Koo. "Gone with the Big Data: Institutional Lender Demand for Private Information." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-053, January 2022. (Revised February 2022.)
- January–February 2022
- Article
Algorithm-Augmented Work and Domain Experience: The Countervailing Forces of Ability and Aversion
By: Ryan Allen and Prithwiraj Choudhury
How does a knowledge worker’s level of domain experience affect their algorithm-augmented work performance? We propose and test theoretical predictions that domain experience has countervailing effects on algorithm-augmented performance: on one hand, domain experience...
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Keywords:
Automation;
Domain Experience;
Algorithmic Aversion;
Experts;
Algorithms;
Machine Learning;
Future Of Work;
Employees;
Experience and Expertise;
Decision Making;
Performance
Allen, Ryan, and Prithwiraj Choudhury. "Algorithm-Augmented Work and Domain Experience: The Countervailing Forces of Ability and Aversion." Organization Science 33, no. 1 (January–February 2022): 149–169. ("Best PhD Student Paper" at SMS conference 2020.)
- February 2022
- Teaching Note
Borusan CAT: Monetizing Prediction in the Age of AI
By: Navid Mojir
Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 521-053.
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- 2022
- Working Paper
What Triggers National Stock Market Jumps?
By: Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steve Davis and Marco Sammon
We examine newspapers the day after major stock-market jumps to evaluate the proximate cause, geographic source, and clarity of these events from 1900 in the US, 1930 in the UK and 1980 in 12 other countries. We find four main results. First, the United States plays an...
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Keywords:
Uncertainty;
Policy Uncertainty;
Stock Market;
Financial Markets;
Volatility;
Risk and Uncertainty;
Policy
Baker, Scott, Nicholas Bloom, Steve Davis, and Marco Sammon. "What Triggers National Stock Market Jumps?" Working Paper, February 2022.
- January 2022 (Revised March 2022)
- Case
ReNew Power: Leading the Energy Transition in India
By: Gunnar Trumbull and Malini Sen
Founder-CEO of one of India’s largest clean energy companies, ReNew Power, which develops, builds, and operates utility-scale wind and solar energy projects, has to decide the way forward for the company as the country and the world stand poised at the cusp of an...
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Keywords:
Energy Generation;
Renewable Energy;
Energy Sources;
Entrepreneurship;
Private Equity;
Initial Public Offering;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Trends;
Transformation;
Private Ownership;
Environmental Sustainability;
Energy Industry;
India;
Asia
Trumbull, Gunnar, and Malini Sen. "ReNew Power: Leading the Energy Transition in India." Harvard Business School Case 722-028, January 2022. (Revised March 2022.)
- January 2022
- Technical Note
Introduction to Capital Structure Analytics
By: Samuel Antill and Ted Berk
This technical note provides an overview of key analytical approaches that are useful in assessing the appropriateness of a firm’s capital structure and funding plan. This note introduces basic quantitative tools and metrics that are commonly used as inputs to this...
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- 2022
- Working Paper
Feeling Seen: Leader Eye Gaze Promotes Psychological Safety, Participation, and Voice
By: Nicole Abi-Esber, Alison Wood Brooks and Ethan Burris
Psychological safety is a hallmark of effective team functioning. Although prior work shows that characteristics of the leader influence employee judgments of psychological safety (and subsequent decisions to speak up), we know very little about “the specific behaviors...
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Keywords:
Eye Gaze;
Psychological Safety;
Voice;
Participation;
Nonverbal Behavior;
Verbal Behavior;
Ostracism;
Conversation;
Groups;
Groups and Teams;
Social Psychology;
Safety;
Leadership;
Behavior
Abi-Esber, Nicole, Alison Wood Brooks, and Ethan Burris. "Feeling Seen: Leader Eye Gaze Promotes Psychological Safety, Participation, and Voice." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-048, January 2022.
- January 2022
- Article
Rational Habit Formation: Experimental Evidence from Handwashing in India
By: Reshmaan Hussam, Atonu Rabbani, Giovanni Reggiani and Natalia Rigol
We test the predictions of the rational addiction model, reconceptualized as rational habit formation, in the context of handwashing in rural India. To track handwashing, we design soap dispensers with timed sensors. We test for rational habit formation by informing...
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Hussam, Reshmaan, Atonu Rabbani, Giovanni Reggiani, and Natalia Rigol. "Rational Habit Formation: Experimental Evidence from Handwashing in India." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 14, no. 1 (January 2022): 1–41. (Lead Article.)
- January 2022
- Article
Why Is Corporate Virtue in the Eye of the Beholder? The Case of ESG Ratings
By: Dane Christensen, George Serafeim and Anywhere Sikochi
Despite the rising use of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) ratings, there is substantial disagreement across rating agencies regarding what rating to give to individual firms. As what drives this disagreement is unclear, we examine whether a firm’s ESG...
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Keywords:
ESG Ratings;
Rating Agency Disagreement;
ESG Disclosure;
Corporate Social Responsibility;
Sustainability;
Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact;
Environmental Sustainability;
Corporate Disclosure
Christensen, Dane, George Serafeim, and Anywhere Sikochi. "Why Is Corporate Virtue in the Eye of the Beholder? The Case of ESG Ratings." Accounting Review 97, no. 1 (January 2022): 147–175.