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      • Faculty Publications  (845)

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      • April 2022
      • Article

      AI Insurance: How Liability Insurance Can Drive the Responsible Adoption of Artificial Intelligence in Health Care

      By: Ariel Dora Stern, Avi Goldfarb and Timo Minssen
      Despite enthusiasm about the potential to apply artificial intelligence (AI) to medicine and health care delivery, adoption remains tepid, even for the most compelling technologies. In this article, the authors focus on one set of challenges to AI adoption: those...  View Details
      Keywords: Artificial Intelligence; Medicine; Health Care and Treatment; Legal Liability; Insurance; Technology Adoption; AI and Machine Learning
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      Stern, Ariel Dora, Avi Goldfarb, and Timo Minssen. "AI Insurance: How Liability Insurance Can Drive the Responsible Adoption of Artificial Intelligence in Health Care." NEJM Catalyst Innovations in Care Delivery 3, no. 4 (April 2022).
      • April 2022
      • Article

      Predictable Financial Crises

      By: Robin Greenwood, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer and Jakob Ahm Sørensen
      Using historical data on post-war financial crises around the world, we show that crises are substantially predictable. The combination of rapid credit and asset price growth over the prior three years, whether in the nonfinancial business or the household sector, is...  View Details
      Keywords: Financial Crisis; Global Range; Forecasting and Prediction; Mathematical Methods
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      Greenwood, Robin, Samuel G. Hanson, Andrei Shleifer, and Jakob Ahm Sørensen. "Predictable Financial Crises." Journal of Finance 77, no. 2 (April 2022): 863–921.
      • April 2022
      • Article

      The Past Is Prologue? Venture-Capital Syndicates' Collaborative Experience and Start-Up Exits

      By: Dan Wang, Emily Cox Pahnke and Rory McDonald
      Past research has produced contradictory insights into how prior collaboration between organizations—their relational embeddedness—impacts collective collaborative performance. We theorize that the effect of relational embeddedness on collaborative success is...  View Details
      Keywords: Inter-organizational Networks; Collaboration; Entrepreneurship; Networks; Organizations; Performance; Venture Capital
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      Wang, Dan, Emily Cox Pahnke, and Rory McDonald. "The Past Is Prologue? Venture-Capital Syndicates' Collaborative Experience and Start-Up Exits." Academy of Management Journal 65, no. 2 (April 2022): 371–402.
      • March 2022
      • Case

      Auto Mag (Abridged)

      By: David E. Bell
      A young HBS graduate purchases a publisher of specialty magazines that advertises second hand cars, boats, trucks, etc. The magazines carry photographs and a brief description of each article for sale. The company faces the problem of deciding on how many magazines to...  View Details
      Keywords: Distribution; Cost Management; Decision Choices and Conditions; Forecasting and Prediction
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      Bell, David E. "Auto Mag (Abridged)." Harvard Business School Case 122-096, March 2022.
      • March 2022
      • Module Note

      Prediction & Machine Learning

      By: Iavor I. Bojinov, Michael Parzen and Paul J. Hamilton
      This note provides an introduction to machine learning for an introductory data science course. The note begins with a description of supervised, unsupervised, and reinforcement learning. Then, the note provides a brief explanation of the difference between traditional...  View Details
      Keywords: Machine Learning; Data Science; Learning; Analytics and Data Science; Performance Evaluation
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      Bojinov, Iavor I., Michael Parzen, and Paul J. Hamilton. "Prediction & Machine Learning." Harvard Business School Module Note 622-101, March 2022.
      • Article

      Eliminating Unintended Bias in Personalized Policies Using Bias-Eliminating Adapted Trees (BEAT)

      By: Eva Ascarza and Ayelet Israeli

      An inherent risk of algorithmic personalization is disproportionate targeting of individuals from certain groups (or demographic characteristics such as gender or race), even when the decision maker does not intend to discriminate based on those “protected”...  View Details

      Keywords: Algorithm Bias; Personalization; Targeting; Generalized Random Forests (GRF); Discrimination; Customization and Personalization; Decision Making; Fairness; Mathematical Methods
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      Ascarza, Eva, and Ayelet Israeli. "Eliminating Unintended Bias in Personalized Policies Using Bias-Eliminating Adapted Trees (BEAT)." e2115126119. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119, no. 11 (March 8, 2022).
      • Article

      Expected Stock Returns Worldwide: A Log-Linear Present-Value Approach

      By: Akash Chattopadhyay, Matthew R. Lyle and Charles C.Y. Wang
      This study provides the first large-scale study of the performance of expected-return proxies (ERPs) internationally. Analyst-forecast-based ICCs are sparsely populated and not robustly associated with future returns. Earnings-model-forecast-based ICCs are...  View Details
      Keywords: Expected Returns; Discount Rates; Fundamental Valuation; Implied Cost Of Capital; International Equity Markets; Present Value; Investment Return; Equity; Markets; Global Range
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      Chattopadhyay, Akash, Matthew R. Lyle, and Charles C.Y. Wang. "Expected Stock Returns Worldwide: A Log-Linear Present-Value Approach." Accounting Review 97, no. 2 (March 2022): 107–133.
      • Article

      From Immigrants to Americans: Race and Assimilation During the Great Migration

      By: Vasiliki Fouka, Soumyajit Mazumder and Marco Tabellini
      How does the arrival of a new minority group affect the social acceptance and outcomes of existing minorities? We study this question in the context of the First Great Migration. Between 1915 and 1930, 1.5 million African Americans moved from the U.S. South to Northern...  View Details
      Keywords: Assimilation; Great Migration; Group Identity; Immigration; Race; History; United States
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      Fouka, Vasiliki, Soumyajit Mazumder, and Marco Tabellini. "From Immigrants to Americans: Race and Assimilation During the Great Migration." Review of Economic Studies 89, no. 2 (March 2022): 811–842. (Also appears in VoxEU, The New York Times, Broadstreet, the Skepticast, and Oxford University Press Blog.)
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Markups to Financial Intermediation in Foreign Exchange Markets

      By: Jonathan Wallen
      On average from 2013 to 2020, foreign asset managers in net sold forward 1.1 trillion U.S. dollars. This forward sale of dollars hedges the currency mismatch of foreign investment in U.S. dollar assets. By accommodating this demand, U.S. and European banks earn an...  View Details
      Keywords: Foreign Exchange; Financial Intermediation; Arbitrage; Market Power; Regulations; Currency; Assets; Interest Rates; Banking Industry
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      Wallen, Jonathan. "Markups to Financial Intermediation in Foreign Exchange Markets." Working Paper, March 2022.
      • March 2022
      • Article

      Targeting High Ability Entrepreneurs Using Community Information: Mechanism Design in the Field

      By: Reshmaan Hussam, Natalia Rigol and Benjamin N. Roth
      Identifying high-growth microentrepreneurs in low-income countries remains a challenge due to a scarcity of verifiable information. With a cash grant experiment in India we demonstrate that community knowledge can help target high-growth microentrepreneurs; while the...  View Details
      Keywords: Microentrepreneurs; Community Information; Field Experiment; Loans; Entrepreneurship; Developing Countries and Economies; Financing and Loans; Information; Mathematical Methods; India
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      Hussam, Reshmaan, Natalia Rigol, and Benjamin N. Roth. "Targeting High Ability Entrepreneurs Using Community Information: Mechanism Design in the Field." American Economic Review 112, no. 3 (March 2022): 861–898.
      • February 2022
      • Case

      Lilium: Preparing for Takeoff

      By: Navid Mojir, Vincent Dessain, Mette Fuglsang Hjortshoej and Emer Moloney
      Lilium is a German company focused on developing electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles (eVTOLs) that can be used to offer air taxi services. The company went public in September 2021 through a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) deal, raising more than...  View Details
      Keywords: SPACs; Business Model; Forecasting and Prediction; Green Technology; Capital Markets; Venture Capital; Initial Public Offering; Rural Scope; Urban Scope; City; Disruptive Innovation; Growth and Development Strategy; Technological Innovation; Demand and Consumers; Market Timing; Industry Growth; Infrastructure; Logistics; Product Design; Product Development; Production; Service Delivery; Service Operations; Strategic Planning; Partners and Partnerships; Risk and Uncertainty; Urban Development; Sustainable Cities; Business Strategy; Competitive Strategy; Competitive Advantage; Air Transportation; Aerospace Industry; Air Transportation Industry; Green Technology Industry; Transportation Industry; Travel Industry; Germany; Munich; Brazil; United States; Florida
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      Mojir, Navid, Vincent Dessain, Mette Fuglsang Hjortshoej, and Emer Moloney. "Lilium: Preparing for Takeoff." Harvard Business School Case 522-084, February 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Gone with the Big Data: Institutional Lender Demand for Private Information

      By: Jung Koo Kang
      I explore whether the value of borrowers’ private information is an important determinant of institutional lender participation in syndicated loans. Institutional lenders have been shown to exploit their access to borrowers’ private information by trading on it in...  View Details
      Keywords: Financial Institutions; Financing and Loans; Information; Data and Data Sets
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      Kang, Jung Koo. "Gone with the Big Data: Institutional Lender Demand for Private Information." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-053, January 2022. (Revised February 2022.)
      • January–February 2022
      • Article

      Algorithm-Augmented Work and Domain Experience: The Countervailing Forces of Ability and Aversion

      By: Ryan Allen and Prithwiraj Choudhury
      How does a knowledge worker’s level of domain experience affect their algorithm-augmented work performance? We propose and test theoretical predictions that domain experience has countervailing effects on algorithm-augmented performance: on one hand, domain experience...  View Details
      Keywords: Automation; Domain Experience; Algorithmic Aversion; Experts; Algorithms; Machine Learning; Future Of Work; Employees; Experience and Expertise; Decision Making; Performance
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      Allen, Ryan, and Prithwiraj Choudhury. "Algorithm-Augmented Work and Domain Experience: The Countervailing Forces of Ability and Aversion." Organization Science 33, no. 1 (January–February 2022): 149–169. ("Best PhD Student Paper" at SMS conference 2020.)
      • February 2022
      • Teaching Note

      Borusan CAT: Monetizing Prediction in the Age of AI

      By: Navid Mojir
      Teaching Note for HBS Case No. 521-053.  View Details
      Keywords: Monetization Strategy; Artificial Intelligence; Forecasting and Prediction; Applications and Software; Technological Innovation; Marketing; Segmentation; AI and Machine Learning; Construction Industry; Turkey
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      Mojir, Navid. "Borusan CAT: Monetizing Prediction in the Age of AI." Harvard Business School Teaching Note 522-069, February 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      What Triggers National Stock Market Jumps?

      By: Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom, Steve Davis and Marco Sammon
      We examine newspapers the day after major stock-market jumps to evaluate the proximate cause, geographic source, and clarity of these events from 1900 in the US, 1930 in the UK and 1980 in 12 other countries. We find four main results. First, the United States plays an...  View Details
      Keywords: Uncertainty; Policy Uncertainty; Stock Market; Financial Markets; Volatility; Risk and Uncertainty; Policy
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      Baker, Scott, Nicholas Bloom, Steve Davis, and Marco Sammon. "What Triggers National Stock Market Jumps?" Working Paper, February 2022.
      • January 2022 (Revised March 2022)
      • Case

      ReNew Power: Leading the Energy Transition in India

      By: Gunnar Trumbull and Malini Sen
      Founder-CEO of one of India’s largest clean energy companies, ReNew Power, which develops, builds, and operates utility-scale wind and solar energy projects, has to decide the way forward for the company as the country and the world stand poised at the cusp of an...  View Details
      Keywords: Energy Generation; Renewable Energy; Energy Sources; Entrepreneurship; Private Equity; Initial Public Offering; Forecasting and Prediction; Trends; Transformation; Private Ownership; Environmental Sustainability; Energy Industry; India; Asia
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      Trumbull, Gunnar, and Malini Sen. "ReNew Power: Leading the Energy Transition in India." Harvard Business School Case 722-028, January 2022. (Revised March 2022.)
      • January 2022
      • Technical Note

      Introduction to Capital Structure Analytics

      By: Samuel Antill and Ted Berk
      This technical note provides an overview of key analytical approaches that are useful in assessing the appropriateness of a firm’s capital structure and funding plan. This note introduces basic quantitative tools and metrics that are commonly used as inputs to this...  View Details
      Keywords: Budgets and Budgeting; Business Plan; Forecasting and Prediction; Borrowing and Debt; Corporate Finance; Capital Structure; Cash Flow; Financial Liquidity; Financial Management; Financing and Loans
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      Antill, Samuel, and Ted Berk. "Introduction to Capital Structure Analytics." Harvard Business School Technical Note 222-061, January 2022.
      • 2022
      • Working Paper

      Feeling Seen: Leader Eye Gaze Promotes Psychological Safety, Participation, and Voice

      By: Nicole Abi-Esber, Alison Wood Brooks and Ethan Burris
      Psychological safety is a hallmark of effective team functioning. Although prior work shows that characteristics of the leader influence employee judgments of psychological safety (and subsequent decisions to speak up), we know very little about “the specific behaviors...  View Details
      Keywords: Eye Gaze; Psychological Safety; Voice; Participation; Nonverbal Behavior; Verbal Behavior; Ostracism; Conversation; Groups; Groups and Teams; Social Psychology; Safety; Leadership; Behavior
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      Abi-Esber, Nicole, Alison Wood Brooks, and Ethan Burris. "Feeling Seen: Leader Eye Gaze Promotes Psychological Safety, Participation, and Voice." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 22-048, January 2022.
      • January 2022
      • Article

      Rational Habit Formation: Experimental Evidence from Handwashing in India

      By: Reshmaan Hussam, Atonu Rabbani, Giovanni Reggiani and Natalia Rigol
      We test the predictions of the rational addiction model, reconceptualized as rational habit formation, in the context of handwashing in rural India. To track handwashing, we design soap dispensers with timed sensors. We test for rational habit formation by informing...  View Details
      Keywords: Handwashing; Habit; Monitoring; Behavior; Health; Motivation and Incentives
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      Hussam, Reshmaan, Atonu Rabbani, Giovanni Reggiani, and Natalia Rigol. "Rational Habit Formation: Experimental Evidence from Handwashing in India." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 14, no. 1 (January 2022): 1–41. (Lead Article.)
      • January 2022
      • Article

      Why Is Corporate Virtue in the Eye of the Beholder? The Case of ESG Ratings

      By: Dane Christensen, George Serafeim and Anywhere Sikochi
      Despite the rising use of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) ratings, there is substantial disagreement across rating agencies regarding what rating to give to individual firms. As what drives this disagreement is unclear, we examine whether a firm’s ESG...  View Details
      Keywords: ESG Ratings; Rating Agency Disagreement; ESG Disclosure; Corporate Social Responsibility; Sustainability; Corporate Social Responsibility and Impact; Environmental Sustainability; Corporate Disclosure
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      Christensen, Dane, George Serafeim, and Anywhere Sikochi. "Why Is Corporate Virtue in the Eye of the Beholder? The Case of ESG Ratings." Accounting Review 97, no. 1 (January 2022): 147–175.
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