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- Faculty Publications (176)
Shocks →
- 2020
- Working Paper
Currency Hedging in Emerging Markets: Managing Cash Flow Exposure
By: Laura Alfaro, Mauricio Calani and Liliana Varela
Foreign currency derivative markets are among the largest in the world, yet their role in emerging markets in particular, is relatively understudied. We study firms' currency risk exposure and their hedging choices by employing a unique dataset covering the universe of...
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Keywords:
Foreign Currency Hedging;
FX Derivatives;
Foreign Currency Debt;
Currency Mismatch;
Trade Credit;
Currency;
Cash Flow;
Emerging Markets
Alfaro, Laura, Mauricio Calani, and Liliana Varela. "Currency Hedging in Emerging Markets: Managing Cash Flow Exposure." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-096, March 2021.
- March 2021
- Article
On the Direct and Indirect Real Effects of Credit Supply Shocks
By: Laura Alfaro, Manuel García-Santana and Enrique Moral-Benito
We explore the real effects of bank-lending shocks and how they permeate the economy through buyer-supplier linkages. We combine administrative data on all Spanish firms with a matched bank-firm-loan dataset of all corporate loans from 2003 to 2013 to estimate...
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Keywords:
Credit Supply Shocks;
Bank Lending Channel;
Input-output Linkages;
Output;
Mechanisms;
Trade Credits;
Price Effects;
Economics;
Credit;
System Shocks;
Employment;
Investment;
Spain
Alfaro, Laura, Manuel García-Santana, and Enrique Moral-Benito. "On the Direct and Indirect Real Effects of Credit Supply Shocks." Journal of Financial Economics 139, no. 3 (March 2021): 895–921.
- March 2021
- Article
The Effectiveness of White-Collar Crime Enforcement: Evidence from the War on Terror
By: Trung Nguyen
This paper analyzes the impact of changes in regulatory priorities and resource allocation on criminal enforcement of white‐collar criminal activities. Using the 9/11 terrorist attacks as a shock to the FBI's priorities and allocation of investigative resources, as...
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Keywords:
White-collar Crime;
Government Regulation;
Financial Fraud;
Securities Fraud;
Insider Trading;
Crime and Corruption;
Finance;
Governing Rules, Regulations, and Reforms;
Law Enforcement
Nguyen, Trung. "The Effectiveness of White-Collar Crime Enforcement: Evidence from the War on Terror." Journal of Accounting Research 59, no. 1 (March 2021): 5–58.
- February 2021
- Article
Do Household Wealth Shocks Affect Productivity? Evidence from Innovative Workers During the Great Recession
By: S. Bernstein, T. McQuade and R. Townsend
We investigate how the deterioration of household balance sheets affects worker productivity, and, in turn, economic downturns. Specifically, we compare the output of innovative workers who experienced differential declines in housing wealth during the financial crisis...
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Keywords:
Great Recession;
Household;
Financial Condition;
System Shocks;
Employees;
Performance Productivity
Bernstein, S., T. McQuade, and R. Townsend. "Do Household Wealth Shocks Affect Productivity? Evidence from Innovative Workers During the Great Recession." Journal of Finance 76, no. 1 (February 2021): 57–111.
- 2024
- Working Paper
Public Debt and Investment Under Political Competition: Evidence from Toxic Loans
By: Julien Sauvagnat and Boris Vallée
We examine the response from local governments and their voters to a large and exogenous
increase in municipal indebtedness. We first show that municipalities with loans that become
“toxic” exhibit a reduction in municipal investments as large as the associated...
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Keywords:
Public Debt;
Public Investments;
Political Contestation;
Toxic Loans;
Borrowing and Debt;
Investment;
Public Sector;
Government and Politics;
Local Range;
Financing and Loans
Sauvagnat, Julien, and Boris Vallée. "Public Debt and Investment Under Political Competition: Evidence from Toxic Loans." Working Paper, 2024.
- January 2021
- Article
Turbulence, Firm Decentralization and Growth in Bad Times
By: Philippe Aghion, Nicholas Bloom, Brian Lucking, Raffaella Sadun and John Van Reenen
What is the optimal form of firm organization during “bad times”? We present a model of delegation within the firm to show that the effect is ambiguous. The greater turbulence following macro shocks may benefit decentralized firms because the value of local information...
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Keywords:
Decentralization;
Growth;
Turbulence;
Great Recession;
Organizational Design;
System Shocks;
Economic Growth;
Performance
Aghion, Philippe, Nicholas Bloom, Brian Lucking, Raffaella Sadun, and John Van Reenen. "Turbulence, Firm Decentralization and Growth in Bad Times." American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 13, no. 1 (January 2021): 133–169.
- 2020
- Working Paper
Vertical Integration of Healthcare Providers Increases Self-Referrals and Can Reduce Downstream Competition: The Case of Hospital-Owned Skilled Nursing Facilities
By: David Cutler, Leemore S. Dafny, David Grabowski, Steven S. Lee and Christopher Ody
The landscape of the U.S. healthcare industry is changing dramatically as healthcare providers expand both within and across markets. While federal antitrust agencies have mounted several challenges to same-market combinations, they have not challenged any...
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Keywords:
Antitrust;
Health Care and Treatment;
Vertical Integration;
Organizational Structure;
Competition;
Health Industry;
United States
Cutler, David, Leemore S. Dafny, David Grabowski, Steven S. Lee, and Christopher Ody. "Vertical Integration of Healthcare Providers Increases Self-Referrals and Can Reduce Downstream Competition: The Case of Hospital-Owned Skilled Nursing Facilities." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 28305, December 2020.
- November 2020 (Revised March 2023)
- Teaching Note
Unrest in Chile
By: Vincent Pons, John Masko, Rafael Di Tella and William Mullins
In 2020, Chileans would head to the ballot box to decide their country’s future. Many international observers credited Chile’s decades of neoliberal governance with turning the country into Latin America’s “Tiger,” a prosperous, diversified economy on its way to...
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- Article
GitLab: Work Where You Want, When You Want
By: Prithwiraj Choudhury, Kevin Crowston, Linus Dahlander, Marco S. Minervini and Sumita Raghuram
GitLab is a software company that works “all remote” at the scale of more than 1,000 employees located in more than 60 countries. GitLab has no physical office and its employees can work from anywhere they choose. Any step of the organizational life of a GitLab...
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Keywords:
New Forms Of Organizing;
Remote Work;
All Remote;
Virtual Organizations;
COVID-19;
Organizational Design;
Employees;
Geographic Location;
Health Pandemics
Choudhury, Prithwiraj, Kevin Crowston, Linus Dahlander, Marco S. Minervini, and Sumita Raghuram. "GitLab: Work Where You Want, When You Want." Art. 23. Journal of Organization Design 9 (2020).
- 2020
- Working Paper
An Executive Order Worth $100 Billion: The Impact of an Immigration Ban's Announcement on Fortune 500 Firms' Valuation
By: Dany Bahar, Prithwiraj Choudhury and Britta Glennon
On June 22, 2020, President Trump issued an Executive Order (EO) that suspended new work visas, barring nearly 200,000 foreign workers and their dependents from entering the United States and preventing American companies from hiring skilled immigrants using H-1B or L1...
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Keywords:
Visa;
Foreign Workers;
Fortune 500;
Immigration;
Policy;
System Shocks;
Business Ventures;
Valuation
Bahar, Dany, Prithwiraj Choudhury, and Britta Glennon. "An Executive Order Worth $100 Billion: The Impact of an Immigration Ban's Announcement on Fortune 500 Firms' Valuation." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 21-055, October 2020.
- Fall 2020
- Article
Sizing Up Corporate Restructuring in the COVID Crisis
By: Robin Greenwood, Benjamin Iverson and David Thesmar
In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, the financial and legal system will need to deal with a surge of financial distress in the business sector. Some firms will be able to survive, while others will face bankruptcy and thus need to be liquidated or reorganized. Many...
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Greenwood, Robin, Benjamin Iverson, and David Thesmar. "Sizing Up Corporate Restructuring in the COVID Crisis." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Fall 2020). (Also NBER Working Paper, No. 28104.)
- Article
Foreign Competition and Domestic Innovation: Evidence from U.S. Patents
By: David Autor, David Dorn, Gordon H. Hanson, Gary P. Pisano and Pian Shu
Manufacturing accounts for more than three-quarters of U.S. corporate patents. The competitive shock to this sector emanating from China's economic ascent could in theory either augment or stifle U.S. innovation. Using three decades of U.S. patents matched to corporate...
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Autor, David, David Dorn, Gordon H. Hanson, Gary P. Pisano, and Pian Shu. "Foreign Competition and Domestic Innovation: Evidence from U.S. Patents." American Economic Review: Insights 2, no. 3 (September 2020): 357–374.
- 2020
- Chapter
Reserve Accumulation, Sovereign Debt, and Exchange Rate Policy
By: Laura Alfaro and Fabio Kanczuk
In the past decade, foreign participation in local-currency bond markets in emerging countries increased dramatically. Additionally, emerging countries are increasingly deviating from inflation targeting regimes, managing their exchange rate and engaging in...
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Alfaro, Laura, and Fabio Kanczuk. "Reserve Accumulation, Sovereign Debt, and Exchange Rate Policy." In Asset Management at Central Banks and Monetary Authorities: New Practices in Managing International Foreign Exchange Reserves, edited by Jacob Bjorheim. Springer, 2020. (Book link.)
- Article
Cultural Diversity on Wall Street: Evidence from Consensus Earnings Forecasts
By: Kenneth Merkley, Roni Michaely and Joseph Pacelli
We examine how cultural differences among agents influence the aggregate outcome of a common forecasting task. Using both exogenous shocks to sell-side analyst diversity and panel regression methods, we find that increases in analyst cultural diversity positively...
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Keywords:
Culture;
Forecasting;
Sell-side Analysts;
Information Aggregation;
Diversity;
Forecasting and Prediction;
Information;
Performance Improvement
Merkley, Kenneth, Roni Michaely, and Joseph Pacelli. "Cultural Diversity on Wall Street: Evidence from Consensus Earnings Forecasts." Journal of Accounting & Economics 70, no. 1 (August 2020).
- Summer 2020
- Article
Is It Time to Rethink Globalized Supply Chains?: The COVID-19 Pandemic Should Be a Wake-up Call for Managers and Prompt Them to Consider Actions That Will Improve Their Resilience to Future Shocks
By: Willy C. Shih
The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the complex interdependencies of globalized supply chains. While these global multistage production networks had spread during a relatively benign environment of falling trade barriers and increasing interdependencies among countries,...
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Keywords:
Supply Chains;
Pandemic;
Resilience;
Supply Chain Management;
Supply Chain;
Global Range;
Health Pandemics;
Disruption;
System Shocks;
Crisis Management;
Manufacturing Industry;
United States;
Asia;
Europe;
China
Shih, Willy C. "Is It Time to Rethink Globalized Supply Chains? The COVID-19 Pandemic Should Be a Wake-up Call for Managers and Prompt Them to Consider Actions That Will Improve Their Resilience to Future Shocks." MIT Sloan Management Review 61, no. 4 (Summer 2020): 16–18.
- 2022
- Working Paper
Optimal Illiquidity
By: John Beshears, James J. Choi, Christopher Clayton, Christopher Harris, David Laibson and Brigitte C. Madrian
We calculate the socially optimal level of illiquidity in an economy populated by households with taste shocks and naive present bias. The government chooses mandatory contributions to accounts, each witha different pre-retirement withdrawal penalty. Collected...
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Keywords:
Illiquidity;
Commitment;
Flexibility;
Savings;
Social Security;
Retirement;
Government Legislation;
Taxation;
Saving
Beshears, John, James J. Choi, Christopher Clayton, Christopher Harris, David Laibson, and Brigitte C. Madrian. "Optimal Illiquidity." Working Paper, July 2022.
- 2020
- Chapter
Building Emergency Savings Through Employer-Sponsored Rainy-Day Savings Accounts
By: John Beshears, James J. Choi, J. Mark Iwry, David C. John, David Laibson and Brigitte C. Madrian
Roughly half of Americans live paycheck to paycheck. When financial shocks occur during their working life, many of these households tap into their retirement savings accounts. We explore the practical considerations and challenges associated with helping households...
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Beshears, John, James J. Choi, J. Mark Iwry, David C. John, David Laibson, and Brigitte C. Madrian. "Building Emergency Savings Through Employer-Sponsored Rainy-Day Savings Accounts." In Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 34, edited by Robert A. Moffitt, 43–90. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2020.
- 2020
- Working Paper
EMEs and COVID-19: Shutting Down in a World of Informal and Tiny Firms
By: Laura Alfaro, Oscar Becerra and Marcela Eslava
Emerging economies are characterized by an extremely high prevalence of informality, small-firm employment and jobs not fit for working from home. These features factor into how the COVID-19 crisis has affected the economy. We develop a framework that, based on...
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Keywords:
COVID-19;
Emerging Economies;
Informality;
Firm-size Distribution;
Health Pandemics;
Developing Countries and Economies;
Economy;
System Shocks;
Latin America
Alfaro, Laura, Oscar Becerra, and Marcela Eslava. "EMEs and COVID-19: Shutting Down in a World of Informal and Tiny Firms." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-125, June 2020. (See application of the methodology to Latin American Countries in the IMF Regional Economic Outlook: Western Hemisphere 2020, Chapter 3. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/WH/Issues/2020/10/13/regional-economic-outlook-western-hemisphere.)
- 2023
- Working Paper
Founder-CEO Compensation and Selection into Venture Capital-Backed Entrepreneurship
By: Michael Ewens, Ramana Nanda and Christopher Stanton
We show theoretically that a critical determinant of the attractiveness of VC-backed entrepreneurship for high-earning potential founders is the expected time to develop a startup’s initial product. This is because founder-CEOs’ cash compensation increases...
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Ewens, Michael, Ramana Nanda, and Christopher Stanton. "Founder-CEO Compensation and Selection into Venture Capital-Backed Entrepreneurship." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 20-119, May 2020. (Revised September 2023. Forthcoming at Journal of Finance.)
- April 2020 (Revised July 2020)
- Case
Unrest in Chile
By: Vincent Pons, William Mullins, John Masko, Annelena Lobb and Rafael Di Tella
In 2020, Chileans would head to the ballot box to decide their country’s future. Many international observers credited Chile’s decades of neoliberal governance with turning the country into Latin America’s “Tiger,” a prosperous, diversified economy on its way to...
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Keywords:
Developing Countries and Economies;
Macroeconomics;
Economy;
Political Elections;
Public Opinion;
Social Issues;
Equality and Inequality;
System Shocks;
Chile;
Latin America
Pons, Vincent, William Mullins, John Masko, Annelena Lobb, and Rafael Di Tella. "Unrest in Chile." Harvard Business School Case 720-033, April 2020. (Revised July 2020.)