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- Faculty Publications (169)
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All HBS Web
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- Faculty Publications (169)
- 2023
- Article
Exploiting Discovered Regression Discontinuities to Debias Conditioned-on-observable Estimators
By: Benjamin Jakubowski, Siram Somanchi, Edward McFowland III and Daniel B. Neill
Regression discontinuity (RD) designs are widely used to estimate causal effects in the absence of a randomized experiment. However, standard approaches to RD analysis face two significant limitations. First, they require a priori knowledge of discontinuities in...
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Jakubowski, Benjamin, Siram Somanchi, Edward McFowland III, and Daniel B. Neill. "Exploiting Discovered Regression Discontinuities to Debias Conditioned-on-observable Estimators." Journal of Machine Learning Research 24, no. 133 (2023): 1–57.
- 2023
- Article
Estimating Causal Peer Influence in Homophilous Social Networks by Inferring Latent Locations.
By: Edward McFowland III and Cosma Rohilla Shalizi
Social influence cannot be identified from purely observational data on social networks, because such influence is generically confounded with latent homophily, that is, with a node’s network partners being informative about the node’s attributes and therefore its...
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Keywords:
Causal Inference;
Homophily;
Social Networks;
Peer Influence;
Social and Collaborative Networks;
Power and Influence;
Mathematical Methods
McFowland III, Edward, and Cosma Rohilla Shalizi. "Estimating Causal Peer Influence in Homophilous Social Networks by Inferring Latent Locations." Journal of the American Statistical Association 118, no. 541 (2023): 707–718.
- April 2023
- Article
Learning Down to Train Up: Mentors Are More Effective When They Value Insights from Below
By: Ting Zhang, Dan Wang and Adam D. Galinsky
Although mentorship is vital for individual success, potential mentors often view it as a costly burden. To understand what motivates mentors to overcome this barrier and more fully engage with their mentees, we introduce a new construct, learning direction, which...
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Keywords:
Mentoring;
Learning Direction;
Interpersonal Communication;
Learning;
Leadership Development
Zhang, Ting, Dan Wang, and Adam D. Galinsky. "Learning Down to Train Up: Mentors Are More Effective When They Value Insights from Below." Academy of Management Journal 66, no. 2 (April 2023): 604–637.
- March–April 2023
- Article
Pricing for Heterogeneous Products: Analytics for Ticket Reselling
By: Michael Alley, Max Biggs, Rim Hariss, Charles Herrmann, Michael Lingzhi Li and Georgia Perakis
Problem definition: We present a data-driven study of the secondary ticket market. In particular, we are primarily concerned with accurately estimating price sensitivity for listed tickets. In this setting, there are many issues including endogeneity, heterogeneity in...
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Keywords:
Price;
Demand and Consumers;
AI and Machine Learning;
Investment Return;
Entertainment and Recreation Industry;
Sports Industry
Alley, Michael, Max Biggs, Rim Hariss, Charles Herrmann, Michael Lingzhi Li, and Georgia Perakis. "Pricing for Heterogeneous Products: Analytics for Ticket Reselling." Manufacturing & Service Operations Management 25, no. 2 (March–April 2023): 409–426.
- 2023
- Working Paper
Distributionally Robust Causal Inference with Observational Data
By: Dimitris Bertsimas, Kosuke Imai and Michael Lingzhi Li
We consider the estimation of average treatment effects in observational studies and propose a new framework of robust causal inference with unobserved confounders. Our approach is based on distributionally robust optimization and proceeds in two steps. We first...
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Bertsimas, Dimitris, Kosuke Imai, and Michael Lingzhi Li. "Distributionally Robust Causal Inference with Observational Data." Working Paper, February 2023.
- 2023
- Working Paper
Crowding in Private Quality: The Equilibrium Effects of Public Spending in Education
By: Tahir Andrabi, Natalie Bau, Jishnu Das, Asim Ijaz Khwaja and Naureen Karachiwalla
We estimate the equilibrium effects of a public-school grant program administered through school councils in Pakistani villages with multiple public and private schools and clearly defined catchment boundaries. The program was randomized at the village-level, allowing...
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Andrabi, Tahir, Natalie Bau, Jishnu Das, Asim Ijaz Khwaja, and Naureen Karachiwalla. "Crowding in Private Quality: The Equilibrium Effects of Public Spending in Education." NBER Working Paper Series, No. 30929, February 2023.
- 2023
- Article
Experimental Evaluation of Individualized Treatment Rules
By: Kosuke Imai and Michael Lingzhi Li
The increasing availability of individual-level data has led to numerous applications of individualized (or personalized) treatment rules (ITRs). Policy makers often wish to empirically evaluate ITRs and compare their relative performance before implementing them in a...
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Keywords:
Causal Inference;
Heterogeneous Treatment Effects;
Precision Medicine;
Uplift Modeling;
Analytics and Data Science;
AI and Machine Learning
Imai, Kosuke, and Michael Lingzhi Li. "Experimental Evaluation of Individualized Treatment Rules." Journal of the American Statistical Association 118, no. 541 (2023): 242–256.
- January 2023
- Article
Racial Diversity and Racial Policy Preferences: The Great Migration and Civil Rights
By: Alvaro Calderon, Vasiliki Fouka and Marco Tabellini
Between 1940 and 1970, more than 4 million African Americans moved from the South to the North of the United States, during the Second Great Migration. This same period witnessed the struggle and eventual success of the civil rights movement in ending institutionalized...
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Keywords:
Civil Rights;
Great Migration;
History;
Race;
Rights;
Prejudice and Bias;
Government Legislation
Calderon, Alvaro, Vasiliki Fouka, and Marco Tabellini. "Racial Diversity and Racial Policy Preferences: The Great Migration and Civil Rights." Review of Economic Studies 90, no. 1 (January 2023): 165–200. (Available also from VOX, Broadstreet, and VOX EU.)
- December 2022
- Article
Fostering Perceptions of Authenticity via Sensitive Self-Disclosure
By: Li Jiang, Leslie K. John, Reihane Boghrati and Maryam Kouchaki
Leaders’ perceived authenticity—the sense that leaders are acting in accordance with their “true self”—is associated with positive outcomes for both employees and organizations alike. How might leaders foster this impression? We show that sensitive self-disclosure, in...
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Keywords:
Authenticity;
Weaknesses;
Self-disclosure;
Leaders;
Impression Management;
Leadership Style;
Motivation and Incentives
Jiang, Li, Leslie K. John, Reihane Boghrati, and Maryam Kouchaki. "Fostering Perceptions of Authenticity via Sensitive Self-Disclosure." Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied 28, no. 4 (December 2022): 898–915.
- December 2022
- Article
The Emotional Rewards of Prosocial Spending Are Robust and Replicable in Large Samples
By: Lara B. Aknin, Elizabeth W. Dunn and Ashley V. Whillans
Past studies show that spending money on other people—prosocial spending—increases a person’s happiness. However, foundational research on this topic was conducted prior to psychology’s credibility revolution (or “replication crisis”), so it is essential to ask...
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Aknin, Lara B., Elizabeth W. Dunn, and Ashley V. Whillans. "The Emotional Rewards of Prosocial Spending Are Robust and Replicable in Large Samples." Current Directions in Psychological Science 31, no. 6 (December 2022): 536–545.
- November 2022
- Article
My Boss' Passion Matters as Much as My Own: The Interpersonal Dynamics of Passion Are a Critical Driver of Performance Evaluations
By: Jon M. Jachimowicz, Andreas Wihler and Adam D. Galinsky
Companies often celebrate employees who successfully pursue their passion. Academic research suggests that these positive evaluations occur because of the passion percolating inside the employee. We propose that supervisors are also a key piece of this puzzle:...
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Keywords:
Passion;
Job Performance;
Motivation;
Emotions;
Performance Evaluation;
Interpersonal Communication
Jachimowicz, Jon M., Andreas Wihler, and Adam D. Galinsky. "My Boss' Passion Matters as Much as My Own: The Interpersonal Dynamics of Passion Are a Critical Driver of Performance Evaluations." Special Issue on Work Passion Research: Taming Breadth and Promoting Depth. Journal of Organizational Behavior 43, no. 9 (November 2022): 1496–1515.
- November 2022
- Article
The Psychosocial Value of Employment: Evidence from a Refugee Camp
By: Reshmaan Hussam, Erin M. Kelley, Gregory Lane and Fatima Zahra
Employment may be important to wellbeing for reasons beyond its role as an income source. This paper presents a causal estimate of the psychosocial value of employment in refugee camps in Bangladesh. We involve 745 individuals in a field experiment with three arms: a...
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Hussam, Reshmaan, Erin M. Kelley, Gregory Lane, and Fatima Zahra. "The Psychosocial Value of Employment: Evidence from a Refugee Camp." American Economic Review 112, no. 11 (November 2022): 3694–3724.
- October–December 2022
- Article
Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem
By: Mochen Yang, Edward McFowland III, Gordon Burtch and Gediminas Adomavicius
Combining machine learning with econometric analysis is becoming increasingly prevalent in both research and practice. A common empirical strategy involves the application of predictive modeling techniques to "mine" variables of interest from available data, followed...
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Keywords:
Machine Learning;
Econometric Analysis;
Instrumental Variable;
Random Forest;
Causal Inference;
AI and Machine Learning;
Forecasting and Prediction
Yang, Mochen, Edward McFowland III, Gordon Burtch, and Gediminas Adomavicius. "Achieving Reliable Causal Inference with Data-Mined Variables: A Random Forest Approach to the Measurement Error Problem." INFORMS Journal on Data Science 1, no. 2 (October–December 2022): 138–155.
- September 16, 2022
- Article
A Causal Test of the Strength of Weak Ties
By: Karthik Rajkumar, Guillaume Saint-Jacques, Iavor I. Bojinov, Erik Brynjolfsson and Sinan Aral
The authors analyzed data from multiple large-scale randomized experiments on LinkedIn’s People You May Know algorithm, which recommends new connections to LinkedIn members, to test the extent to which weak ties increased job mobility in the world’s largest...
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Rajkumar, Karthik, Guillaume Saint-Jacques, Iavor I. Bojinov, Erik Brynjolfsson, and Sinan Aral. "A Causal Test of the Strength of Weak Ties." Science 377, no. 6612 (September 16, 2022).
- 2022
- Working Paper
Human Capital and the Managerial Revolution in the United States
By: Tom Nicholas
This paper estimates the returns to human capital accumulation during the first era of megafirms in the United States by linking employees at General Electric—a canonical enterprise associated with the “visible hand” of managerial hierarchies—to data from the 1940...
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Keywords:
Returns To Education;
Management Practices;
Hierarchies;
Human Capital;
Management;
Training;
Higher Education;
Government and Politics;
United States
Nicholas, Tom. "Human Capital and the Managerial Revolution in the United States." Harvard Business School Working Paper, No. 23-015, September 2022.
- 2022
- Working Paper
Turning Away From the State: Trade Shocks and Informal Insurance in Brazil
By: Paula Rettl
How does economic globalization affect vote choices? Conventional wisdom holds that voters who lose from economic integration support parties that propose to expand the welfare state. I argue that a key scope condition of this causal relationship is expectations about...
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Keywords:
Economic Globalization;
Globalized Economies;
Government Administration;
Economics;
Globalization;
Globalized Economies and Regions;
Voting;
Brazil;
Latin America
Rettl, Paula. "Turning Away From the State: Trade Shocks and Informal Insurance in Brazil." Working Paper, August 2022.
- 2022
- Working Paper
Product2Vec: Leveraging Representation Learning to Model Consumer Product Choice in Large Assortments
By: Fanglin Chen, Xiao Liu, Davide Proserpio and Isamar Troncoso
We propose a method, Product2Vec, based on representation learning, that can automatically learn latent product attributes that drive consumer choices, to study product-level competition when the number of products is large. We demonstrate Product2Vec’s...
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Chen, Fanglin, Xiao Liu, Davide Proserpio, and Isamar Troncoso. "Product2Vec: Leveraging Representation Learning to Model Consumer Product Choice in Large Assortments." NYU Stern School of Business Research Paper Series, July 2022.
- June 2022 (Revised July 2022)
- Technical Note
Causal Inference
This note provides an overview of causal inference for an introductory data science course. First, the note discusses observational studies and confounding variables. Next the note describes how randomized experiments can be used to account for the effect of...
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Keywords:
Causal Inference;
Causality;
Experiment;
Experimental Design;
Data Science;
Analytics and Data Science
Bojinov, Iavor I., Michael Parzen, and Paul Hamilton. "Causal Inference." Harvard Business School Technical Note 622-111, June 2022. (Revised July 2022.)
- June 2022
- Article
Conservatism Gets Funded? A Field Experiment on the Role of Negative Information in Novel Project Evaluation
By: Jacqueline N. Lane, Misha Teplitskiy, Gary Gray, Hardeep Ranu, Michael Menietti, Eva C. Guinan and Karim R. Lakhani
The evaluation and selection of novel projects lies at the heart of scientific and technological innovation, and yet there are persistent concerns about bias, such as conservatism. This paper investigates the role that the format of evaluation, specifically information...
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Keywords:
Project Evaluation;
Innovation;
Knowledge Frontier;
Information Sharing;
Negativity Bias;
Projects;
Innovation and Invention;
Information;
Knowledge Sharing
Lane, Jacqueline N., Misha Teplitskiy, Gary Gray, Hardeep Ranu, Michael Menietti, Eva C. Guinan, and Karim R. Lakhani. "Conservatism Gets Funded? A Field Experiment on the Role of Negative Information in Novel Project Evaluation." Management Science 68, no. 6 (June 2022): 4478–4495.
- May 2022
- Article
Can Gambling Increase Savings? Empirical Evidence on Prize-Linked Savings Accounts
By: Shawn A. Cole, Benjamin Iverson and Peter Tufano
This paper studies the adoption and impact of prize-linked savings (PLS) accounts, which offer lottery-like payouts to individual account holders in lieu of interest. Using microlevel data from a bank in South Africa, we show that PLS is attractive to a broad group of...
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Keywords:
Household Finance;
Banking;
Savings;
Prize-linked Savings;
Lottery;
Household;
Personal Finance;
Saving;
Banks and Banking
Cole, Shawn A., Benjamin Iverson, and Peter Tufano. "Can Gambling Increase Savings? Empirical Evidence on Prize-Linked Savings Accounts." Management Science 68, no. 5 (May 2022): 3282–3308.